With Carlos Alcaraz officially withdrawing from Roland-Garros, the entire complexion of the men’s draw changed overnight.

Jannik Sinner now enters Paris as the clear tournament favorite after dominating much of the clay-court season, but the outright betting value may lie elsewhere thanks to several fascinating quarter-by-quarter storylines throughout the draw.

While Sinner landed arguably the softest path among the top contenders, Novak Djokovic was thrown into a brutal section packed with dangerous floaters, rising stars, and physical clay-court grinders.

Meanwhile, Arthur Fils arrives in Paris with momentum, crowd support, and a favorable draw that could set the stage for the biggest French breakthrough at Roland-Garros in years.

Here’s a full breakdown of the 2026 French Open predictions and men’s draw breakdown.

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First Quarter 2026 French Open predictions: Sinner’s Dream Path

Favorite: Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner begins our 2026 French Open predictions. He could not have asked for a much cleaner draw after Alcaraz pulled out of the tournament. His opening rounds are manageable, and most of the dangerous clay-court specialists landed elsewhere in the bracket.

Potential early opponents:

• Clement Tabur
• Jacob Fearnley
• Juan Manuel Cerundolo
• Corentin Moutet
• Hubert Hurkacz
• Stefanos Tsitsipas

There are talented players here, but very few who consistently threaten elite players over five sets on clay. Tsitsipas has struggled to regain his best level; Hurkacz is still more dangerous on faster surfaces; Matteo Berrettini’s return game is in the tank, and he’s difficult to trust.

The biggest danger for Sinner may simply be maintaining focus while carrying massive expectations as the clear favorite.

Longshot: Alexander Bublik

Alexander Bublik’s section is volatile, but the draw gives him a realistic chance to build momentum early. If conditions play slightly quicker than usual in Paris, his serve and aggressive shot-making could become dangerous.

Best Early Match

Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

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Second Quarter: Pure Chaos

Favorite: Daniil Medvedev

This quarter feels completely unstable.

There’s no dominant clay-court force controlling the section, which opens the door for long matches, upsets, and momentum swings throughout the week.

Potential threats include:

• Francisco Cerundolo
• Flavio Cobolli
• Brandon Nakashima
• Learner Tien
• Gael Monfils
• Hugo Gaston
• Valentin Vacherot

Cerundolo may actually be the most dangerous pure clay-court player in the section, while Gael Monfils and Hugo Gaston create the possibility of classic Roland-Garros night-session chaos.

Daniil Medvedev’s experience may ultimately help him survive the madness, but this draw looks exhausting for whoever advances.

Longshot: Valentin Vacherot

Valentin Vacherot rolled to the Monte Carlo semis, and he’s proven to be a very capable and dangerous player none of these guys want to face.

Best Early Match

Gael Monfils vs. Hugo Gaston

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Third Quarter 2026 French Open predictions: Djokovic’s Nightmare

Favorite: Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic’s quarter is absolutely loaded.

Potential opponents include:

• Jakub Mensik
• Tomas Martin Etcheverry
• Andrey Rublev
• Casper Ruud
• Joao Fonseca
• Tommy Paul

For a 39-year-old player trying to survive seven best-of-five-set matches, this is about as physically demanding a draw as possible.

Jakob Mensik’s power, Andrey Rublev’s pace, Casper Ruud’s clay-court consistency, and Joao Fonseca’s explosiveness all create serious problems. Even players like Brooksby and Etcheverry can drag matches into long, physical battles.

Djokovic remains dangerous because of his experience and ability to solve problems over five sets, but this path is brutal.

Best Longshot Value: Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud quietly landed one of the sneakiest good draws in the tournament.

The two-time Roland-Garros finalist avoids several dangerous floaters early and should have opportunities to settle into the event before the second week. If Djokovic gets physically worn down, Ruud could realistically find himself back in another semifinal.

Dark Horse: Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev’s early section is manageable, and his recent clay form has been quietly improving. If he controls the emotional swings that have hurt him in past Slams, another quarterfinal run is very realistic.

Best Early Match

Jakub Mensik vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry

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Fourth Quarter 2026 French Open predictions: The Fils Opportunity

Favorite: Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev remains one of the most dangerous players in the field on clay, but this section suddenly became much more interesting because of Arthur Fils.

Potential quarterfinal opponents:

• Arthur Fils
• Jiri Lehecka
• Karen Khachanov
• Ugo Humbert
• Tomas Machac

Zverev still deserves favorite status, but there are questions about both his physical condition and his ability to handle an explosive young player in front of a Paris crowd.

Best Outright Value: Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils enters Roland-Garros playing the best clay tennis of his career after a title run in Barcelona and a semifinal appearance in Madrid.

Just as importantly, he landed in one of the cleaner sections among the realistic contenders:

• avoids Sinner until the semifinals
• avoids Djokovic until the final
• avoids many of the elite clay grinders early

The injury concern after his Rome retirement remains important, but if healthy, the young Frenchman has a very realistic path to the semifinals.

And with Yannick Noah still the last Frenchman to win Roland-Garros back in 1983, the pressure and energy surrounding Fils in Paris could become one of the major stories of the tournament.

Sleeper: Rafael Jodar

The young Spaniard quietly landed a favorable opening section and could surprise with a third-round run.

Best Potential Match

Arthur Fils vs. Alexander Zverev

If this quarterfinal happens, it could become the match of the tournament:

• massive crowd energy
• huge serving
• heavy forehands
• emotional swings
• potential night-session atmosphere

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