2026 French Open: Alcaraz Out, Sabalenka Rising, Djokovic Chasing 25

Carlos Alcaraz pulling out of the 2026 French Open is a bummer, but it opens the door for someone to break the Sincaraz stranglehold on the Grand Slams.

Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite to win her first French Open title, but can she handle the pressure of being the one everyone is chasing in Paris?

These are just two of the stories we’re watching ahead of the 2026 French Open. After the break, here are eight more storylines Phil is following as the second major of the season begins.

Carlos Alcaraz Is Out. And This Is Serious

Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has withdrawn with a right wrist injury and will miss both Rome and Roland Garros.

Wrist injuries change careers. Just ask Dominic Thiem. Just ask Juan Martín del Potro.

We don’t know how bad it is yet. But the man chasing a three-peat in Paris is gone. There is no timetable for return.

It’s terrible for him. It’s terrible for the sport.

But it opens the door.

Ben Shelton: The Next American Champion?

Ben Shelton just won Munich.

That matters.

Yes, he lost early in Madrid. That’s normal. You win a title, come back the next week, and the energy isn’t the same.

But zoom out.

He has the serve. He has the power. And now he’s learning how to win on clay.

This is no longer about whether he can compete on the surface.

The question is bigger.

Is Ben Shelton the next American Grand Slam champion?

I think yes.

Taylor Fritz is stuck in neutral. Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe are dangerous but inconsistent. Learner Tien isn’t ready yet.

A French Open title might be a stretch.

But if Alcaraz is out longer than expected, Shelton could be the one to break up the Sincaraz era.

Jannik Sinner’s Moment Has Arrived

Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz have split the last nine majors.

Now one of them is out.

Sinner already has the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open.

Paris is the missing piece.

He was one point away last year. Only a handful of players can realistically beat him here.

He’s also chasing a fifth straight Masters 1000 title in Madrid and will be the favorite in Rome.

But here’s the twist.

No rival means no edge.

With history comes pressure, and now we find out how he handles it.

Aryna Sabalenka Carries the Weight

For the first time, Aryna Sabalenka enters Roland Garros as the favorite.

She’s the best player in the world right now.

But she’s missing two things. The French Open and Wimbledon.

This is her window.

She swept the Sunshine Double and just beat Naomi Osaka in Madrid.

No one is playing better.

Now she has to finish it, and this begins at the 2026 French Open.

Coco Gauff and the Defender’s Burden

Coco Gauff won this title in 2025.

Now she has to defend it.

She’s trying to become the first American since Serena Williams to repeat in Paris.

At 22.

She has the best return game in the sport and elite athleticism.

But if that movement dips even a little, she becomes vulnerable.

That’s why she’s always the wild card.

Iga Świątek Is Crumbling

This isn’t a slump anymore.

Iga Świątek hasn’t won a clay title since Roland Garros 2024.

She just lost in Madrid again and walked off in tears.

For years, she was untouchable on clay.

Now the confidence looks gone.

The aura is gone.

And for the first time, she doesn’t feel like a threat in Paris.

Arthur Fils: France Has a Shot

Arthur Fils is flying under the radar.

He’s made the quarters or better in five straight events and won Barcelona.

Madrid won’t tell us everything. Rome will.

Right now, he looks like a real contender.

Fading Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva has the most clay wins this season.

She’s beaten Sabalenka. She’s beaten Świątek.

And she’s priced near the top of the market.

But the emotional swings are still there.

The lapses are still there.

Until that settles, I’m out.

Spain’s Wild Card: Rafael Jodar

Teenager Rafael Jodar is coming fast.

He’s 14–2 on clay over the past year and already turning heads.

The price is tempting, and his French Open odds have shortened after beating Joao Fonseca in Madrid.

But asking a teenager to beat Sinner or Fils in Paris is a big ask.

Still, he’s one to watch.

Does Djokovic Finally Win Elusive No. 25?

Novak Djokovic is a three-time French Open champion chasing history.

A 25th Grand Slam title would put him alone at the top.

This time, he may not have to go through Sincaraz.

He already proved something earlier this year when he beat Jannik Sinner in Melbourne.

But there are real questions.

He hasn’t played since Indian Wells. He skipped Monte Carlo and Madrid. He’s entered in Rome, but it’s unclear if he will even show up.

That lack of match play matters, especially on clay.

Roland Garros is a grind. Long matches. Physical battles. Little margin for error.

That makes a run to No. 25 feel unlikely.

But writing off Djokovic has never been a winning strategy.

He is the ultimate competitor. The ultimate problem solver.

I’m not betting on him to break the record in Paris.

But if anyone in this field can do it, it’s Djokovic.