The biggest betting upsets at Indian Wells 2025 weren’t random.
They were predictable — if you were paying attention.
Slow courts. Heavy conditions. Fatigue. Reputation pricing.
Every year, the market relies on rankings and name value, and every year, the desert reveals something different.
In 2025, it sometimes exposed tired legs, overrated form, and matchups that didn’t add up.
Here are the five biggest betting shocks from the men’s draw, and what they actually told us.
Top 5 Men’s Upsets from 2025
5. Jenson Brooksby def. Felix Auger-Aliassime (+258)
Jenson Brooksby opened his tournament by taking out Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Brooksby is a scrappy guy with a lot of heart, and FAA was not the same player against Brooksby as he was in the second half of his 2025 campaign.
4. Francisco Cerundolo def. Alex de Minaur (+274)
Francisco Cerundolo stunned Alex de Minaur in the fourth round.
The bookmakers have wrongly labeled Cerundolo as a “clay-court” player, which is true. The thing is, accomplished dirt-ballers have typically thrived at Indian Wells, and he certainly did against the Aussie.
3. Tallon Griekspoor def. Alexander Zverev (+287)
Tallon Griekspoor knocked out Alexander Zverev in the second round.
Zverev came in flat after a disappointing Australian Open final loss to Jannik Sinner, and Griekspoor is one of those players with a compact enough game to have success on the slower Indian Wells courts.
2. Yosuke Watanuki def. Tomas Machac (+296)
Yosuke Watanuki delivered one of the early-round shocks by defeating Tomas Machac.
Machac was coming off an Acapulco title, and the injury-prone Czech threw in the towel late into the second set to give bettors a nice payday.
1. Botic van de Zandschulp def. Novak Djokovic (+591)
The biggest betting upset of the 2025 men’s draw belonged to Botic van de Zandschulp.
In the second round, he eliminated Novak Djokovic. Djokovic was struggling physically, and van de Zandschulp took the GOAT to the woodshed.
Final Takeaway
Indian Wells doesn’t reward reputation. It rewards matchups.
FAA was playing like garbage, and when that happens, a scrapper can and will take him out. Look for that.
Accomplished clay-courters are not liabilities in the desert. They’re threats. If their opponent can’t hit through him, then he is an upset candidate.
Veteran higher seeds dealing with health issues or short on match play are almost always priced on name value.
And mid-level players coming off titles? They’re often overvalued the following week. Emotional highs don’t always travel. Fatigue does.
That’s what the 2025 Indian Wells 2025 betting upsets showed.
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
