The women’s draw at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open produced several odds-defying results, with multiple underdogs cashing at +200 or higher in the opening rounds.
Indian Wells rewards patience and discipline on its slow desert hard courts. When favorites struggle to adjust early, price gaps can disappear quickly.
Based on closing betting lines, here were the five biggest WTA betting upsets from last year’s tournament.
5. Lulu Sun def. Rebecca Sramkova (+240)
Lulu Sun opened her campaign by defeating Rebecca Sramkova as a +240 underdog.
Sun handled longer rallies well and stayed composed in key moments. It was an early reminder that the Indian Wells surface can neutralize power advantages.
4. Jaqueline Cristian def. Veronika Kudermetova (+243)
Romania’s Jaqueline Cristian stunned Veronika Kudermetova in the opening round at +243.
Cristian absorbed pace, extended rallies, and forced errors. The result immediately altered that portion of the draw.
3. Jaqueline Cristian def. Leylah Fernandez (+255)
Cristian followed up with another plus-money result, eliminating Leylah Fernandez at +255.
Two straight wins as an underdog made her one of the early surprises of the event and opened up a path few projected beforehand.
2. Camila Osorio def. Naomi Osaka (+311)
Colombia’s Camila Osorio delivered one of the most notable betting shocks of the tournament by defeating Naomi Osaka at +311.
Osorio varied pace effectively and maintained composure in pressure moments. Upsets involving former world No. 1 players always draw attention — especially at plus-money prices.
1. Lulu Sun def. Linda Noskova (+557)
The biggest betting upset of the 2025 women’s draw belonged to Sun.
In the second round, she eliminated Linda Noskova as a massive +557 underdog.
That result did more than cash tickets. It completely reshaped that quarter of the draw and reinforced how volatile early rounds in Indian Wells can be.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Indian Wells rarely unfolds exactly as the betting odds suggest.
Slow conditions, long rallies, and physical demands create narrow margins. When underdogs settle in early, favorites can find themselves under pressure quickly.
If 2025 showed anything, it is this:
In the desert, price gaps can disappear fast.
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
