Can Olivia Miles Win the 2026 WNBA MVP?

Olivia Miles has all but wrapped up the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award.

Now comes the bigger question.

Can she become the first rookie since Candace Parker in 2008 to win the WNBA Most Valuable Player Award?

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the answer isn’t as far-fetched as it might have seemed a month ago. Miles has climbed to +700, making her the second betting choice behind four-time MVP A’ja Wilson (-450).

Wilson remains the deserving favorite, but Miles has forced herself into a conversation few expected when the season began.

The Lynx Never Missed a Beat

When Napheesa Collier missed significant time earlier this season, many expected the Minnesota Lynx to come back to the pack.

Instead, they continued winning.

A huge reason for that has been Olivia Miles.

The rookie point guard hasn’t simply filled minutes—she has directed one of the league’s best offenses while helping Minnesota maintain the WNBA’s best record. That isn’t normal for a first-year player, and it’s exactly the type of impact MVP voters are supposed to recognize.

She’s More Than a Rookie

The Rookie of the Year race is effectively over.

Miles has separated herself from the rest of the class with her decision-making, playmaking, and ability to control games beyond the box score. She has elevated everyone around her while playing for the league’s top team.

That’s no longer a rookie story.

That’s an MVP story.

History Isn’t on Her Side

Only Candace Parker has won Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season, accomplishing the feat during her remarkable 2008 campaign.

History suggests it won’t happen often.

But history also doesn’t see many rookies step into championship contenders and become indispensable from opening night.

The Biggest Obstacle Is A’ja Wilson

If the voting ended today, my ballot would still go to A’ja Wilson.

She’s been dominant from opening night and remains the league’s most complete player. That’s exactly why she’s sitting at -450 to win another MVP.

Miles doesn’t need Wilson to struggle.

She simply needs to keep doing what she’s been doing while helping Minnesota finish with the league’s best record.

If the Lynx continue to separate themselves from the field and Miles remains the engine that keeps them rolling, voters may have to think long and hard about making history.

The Value Is There

This isn’t about saying Olivia Miles will win the MVP.

It’s about asking whether +700 accurately reflects her chances.

For me, the answer is no.

She’s already proven she belongs in the conversation, she’s leading the best team in basketball, and she’s done it while helping Minnesota weather one of its toughest stretches of the season.

Would I bet the mortgage?

Absolutely not.

Would I put a couple of shekels on Olivia Miles at +700 and see if history repeats itself?

You bet I would.