WTA Madrid Open 2026 Breakdown: Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff and One Player to Avoid

Only a handful of players can win the WTA Madrid Open 2026, and the conditions here make it even more predictable.

The faster clay and altitude reward power and aggression, which puts the spotlight on Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff heading into the week.

Sabalenka has won three of the past four Mutua Madrid Opens, but Swiatek and Gauff, along with a few others, have tasted success in Madrid and are hungry for more.

Read on for my WTA Madrid Open 2026 favorites, long shots, and ONE fade for next week’s tournament.

Mutua Madrid Masters 2026 Tournament Content Hub

Get ready for Madrid! Our 2026 Madrid Masters content hub has everything you need for the Men’s and Women’s tournaments, updated daily right up to the first ball.

Favorites

My thinking is that only a handful of women can win this event, and these three are the tour’s best on this surface.

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka may or may not be the best clay court player in the world, but she’s hotter than fish grease.

She just swept the Sunshine Double and has reached the final in every event she entered in 2026, with her only loss coming in Melbourne to Elena Rybakina.

The altitude works in her favor. She’s won Madrid in three of the last four years and will be tough to beat.

Iga Swiatek

Two years ago, Iga Swiatek was considered the Queen of Clay, but the 2024 Madrid champion hasn’t won a title since her 2024 French Open triumph.

She hasn’t reached a final this season, but the former World No. 1 has the experience, and maybe Francisco Roig can help her turn things around.

Swiatek has the game to at least reach the semifinals, if not win the entire event.

Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff hasn’t played that well since winning the 2025 French Open, but this is a spot where she can find her level again.

Madrid is where she built momentum heading into Roland Garros, and the surface speed sets up well for her game.

Gauff is the best athlete on either tour and wins close to 50 percent of her return points.

That makes her dangerous on clay, and she brings a 17–2 record on the surface along with experience from Stuttgart.

Longshots

Elina Svitolina

Last year was Elina Svitolina’s best Madrid result, and she’s off to a 21–5 start this season with a title in Auckland and several semifinal appearances.

The Ukrainian has nine titles on clay, including two in Rome, so she is more than comfortable on this surface.

Svitolina is playing with confidence, her service game has improved, and she continues to return at an elite level. That combination should work well in Madrid.

Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula is having a tremendous season, and the 2022 Madrid finalist has the game to make another run here.

She’s coming off a title in Charleston, she’ll be rested, and she is not intimidated by the top names on tour.

Pegula has been one of the most efficient players on the WTA in both serving and returning. She’s playing with confidence and has a real shot to go deep.

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva just captured her second title of the season in Linz, and she heads into Madrid looking for her first WTA 1000 title.

The teenager reached the quarterfinals here and in Rome last year and posted a 14–3 record on clay.

It’s only a matter of time until she breaks through at this level. The talent is there.

She has shown some maturity issues, so the question is whether she can put everything together for a full run.

Fade

Jasmine Paolini

Jasmine Paolini doesn’t have many points to defend, but she’s having trouble putting wins together.

She’s just 3–5 in Madrid, and her serve is not the kind of weapon that holds up in faster clay conditions.

She was beaten badly by Zeynep Sonmez in Stuttgart and has struggled to hold serve consistently.

That makes her a fade in this spot.

Phil Naessens

Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.