EDITORS’ UPDATE: Jack Draper has pulled out of the 2026 HSBC Championships and will return to the tour for the Eastbourne 250.
Holger Rune has also withdrawn from the 2026 HSBC Championships.
Our 2026 HSBC Championships predictions feature one of the most intriguing fields of the grass-court season.
Unlike Halle, which attracted many of the ATP Tour’s biggest servers and most accomplished grass-court players, Queen’s looks far more open.
That creates an opportunity for several rising stars and established contenders to make a statement before Wimbledon.
Recent champions at Queen’s have typically succeeded by serving well, winning tiebreaks, and handling pressure moments.
With that in mind, read on for our 2026 HSBC Championships predictions, beginning Monday, June 15.
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Favorite #1: Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka enters Queen’s as my favorite to win the title.
The Czech enjoyed a breakthrough run at Queen’s last year, reaching the final before falling to Carlos Alcaraz in a tightly contested championship match.
Along the way, he defeated Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper, proving he can handle both elite competition and the unique challenges of grass-court tennis.
The numbers support his case. Over the last 12 months on grass, Lehecka has posted a 70 percent winning percentage, a 15.2 percent ace rate, and an outstanding 90.4 percent hold percentage. He has also won 67 percent of his grass-court tiebreaks.
While he suffered an early exit at Roland Garros, it is important to remember that Lehecka also reached the Miami Open final earlier this season and climbed to a career-high ranking of No. 12.
Few players in this field possess his combination of serving power, confidence, and proven success at Queen’s.
Favorite #2: Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur remains one of the most reliable grass-court players in the world.
His 150.2 grass-court Return Rating ranks among the strongest in the field, while his speed and court coverage make him a difficult matchup on any surface.
De Minaur’s game may not rely on overwhelming power, but he consistently forces opponents to play extra balls and creates pressure on nearly every return game. That ability has helped him produce strong results at Queen’s throughout his career.
With proven success on these courts and plenty of experience in big matches, de Minaur deserves his place among the tournament favorites.
Favorite #3: Jakub Mensik
Jakub Mensik may be the most dangerous young player in the draw.
The Czech has one of the biggest serves in the tournament and has quickly developed a reputation for thriving under pressure. Over the past 52 weeks, Mensik has won 67.7 percent of his tiebreaks, one of the best marks among players in this field.
His strong performance at Roland Garros further demonstrated his growing maturity and confidence on the biggest stages.
Recent Queen’s champions such as Matteo Berrettini, Carlos Alcaraz, and Tommy Paul all combined strong serving with the ability to deliver in key moments. Mensik’s game fits that profile remarkably well.
If he continues his rapid development, this could be the week he announces himself as a legitimate Wimbledon contender.
Longshot #1: Jack Draper
EDITORS’ UPDATE: Jack Draper has pulled out of the 2026 HSBC Championships and will return to the tour for the Eastbourne 250.
If healthy, Jack Draper could easily win this tournament.
The British star owns one of the most dangerous grass-court games on tour. His left-handed serve, powerful forehand, and ability to attack from the first shot make him a natural fit for Queen’s.
The concern is fitness.
Draper has dealt with injuries throughout the season and missed both the Australian Open and Roland Garros. As a result, he enters Queen’s with limited match play and more questions than the players listed above.
Still, the upside is enormous. With the support of the home crowd behind him, Draper remains one of the most intriguing players in the field.
Longshot #2: Learner Tien
Learner Tien might be the most overlooked player in the draw.
While he lacks the serving power of Mensik or Draper, his ability to perform under pressure is exceptional.
Tien owns an ATP-leading Under Pressure Rating of 257.5, has won 70.7 percent of his tiebreaks, and boasts an impressive 82.6 percent winning percentage in deciding sets.
Grass-court matches are often decided by a handful of points, and few players in this field have been better in those situations.
His strong return numbers and mental toughness make him a dangerous sleeper who can and has surprised more established names.
Fade: Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti is one of the most talented players in the field, but there are simply too many question marks surrounding his preparation and fitness.
The Italian has played only three matches since April and was forced to withdraw during his Roland Garros campaign. While his all-court game can be effective on grass, match sharpness is especially important during the short grass-court season.
Recent Queen’s champions entered the tournament healthy, confident, and playing regularly. Musetti arrives with uncertainty surrounding both his physical condition and his recent lack of competitive tennis.
At full strength, Musetti is capable of making a deep run. However, based on the information available, he is a difficult player to trust.
Final Thoughts
This year’s Queen’s Club Championships feels more open than usual.
Jiri Lehecka’s combination of serving power, recent success at Queen’s, and strong grass-court statistics make him my early favorite. Alex de Minaur and Jakub Mensik are not far behind, while Jack Draper and Learner Tien offer intriguing longshot value.
As Wimbledon approaches, Queen’s should provide several clues about which players are ready to make a serious run at the All England Club.
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
Which players have been officially confirmed for qualifying for the Men’s Queens?
It’s not available on the LTA website….sorry.
https://x.com/SergiTenis/status/2064808071012974869?s=20