The 2026 Barcelona Open is just days away, and the clay swing is already heating up in Monte Carlo Masters.
Carlos Alcaraz headlines the field, looking to return to the winner’s circle, but a deep and dangerous draw, including rising Spaniard Rafael Jodar, could make this anything but easy.
Read on for my 2026 Barcelona Open favorites, longshots, and fades for April 13.
Master the Barcelona Clay
From Phil’s 2026 Clay Court Power Rankings to the full draw analysis and 12 years of historical betting trends, get the definitive fan and analyst guide to the Barcelona Open.
Who Can Win?
Carlos Alcaraz comes in as the clear favorite. His only clay loss this season came against Holger Rune in a final, and this is his home event. He’s already won here twice and owns a strong 14–3 record in Barcelona. With Jannik Sinner skipping the tournament, this sets up perfectly for another deep run.
2024 champion Casper Ruud thrives on slow clay courts. His grinding style fits Barcelona perfectly, and his 13–4 record here shows just how comfortable he is. If matches turn physical, Ruud is one of the toughest outs in the field.
Arthur Fils is a dangerous wildcard. He made the semifinals here last year and comes in fresh after skipping Monte Carlo. If his fitness holds up, his power and aggression can carry him deep into the draw.
Longshots to Watch
Rafael Jodar is building serious momentum. He just won Marrakech and sits at 23–7 on the season. He’s already played plenty of matches, which makes him battle-ready—and dangerous in early rounds
Karen Khachanov hasn’t had a great start to the season, but Barcelona suits him. He’s physical, patient, and willing to grind. If he finds rhythm, he can work his way back into the later rounds.
A two-time quarterfinalist here, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina should be fresh after skipping Monte Carlo. His recent form has been shaky, but playing at home could give him the lift he needs.
Player to Fade
Normally a strong clay-court contender, Lorenzo Musetti comes in with major question marks. He’s barely played since his injury at the Australian Open, and until he proves he can get through multiple matches without physical issues, he’s a risky pick this week.
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
