Previewing the 2025 BNP Paribas Open Women’s WTA 1000!
World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is set to defend her BNP Paribas Open 2024 title as the WTA heads to Indian Wells, California, for the first leg of the “Sunshine Double.”
Join me as I take a closer look at the main draw for the second WTA 1000 of the year, beginning Wednesday, March 5.
Past BNP Paribas WTA 1000 Champs in Main Draw
The 2025 BNP Paribas Open features five former Indian Wells champions: Iga Swiatek (2022 and 2024), Elena Rybakina (2023), Paula Badosa (2021), Naomi Osaka (2018), and Victoria Azarenka (2012 and 2016).
Before we get started, here are the top performers at WTA 1000 events during 2024.
Top 2024 WTA 1000 Hard Court Records
- Aryna Sabalenka: 24-7 (Cincinnati, Wuhan)
- Daria Kasatkina: 22-14
- Elena Rybakina: 21-4
- Jessica Pegula: 19-6 (Toronto)
- Paula Badosa: 19-8
- Iga Świątek: 18-3 (Qatar, Indian Wells)
- Coco Gauff: 18-7 (Beijing)
- Qinwen Zheng: 17-7
- Anna Kalinskaya: 18-10
- Marta Kostyuk: 18-10
- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: 18-9
- Ekaterina Alexandrova: 18-12
- Karolina Muchová: 10-3
The BNP Paribas Favorites
The Indian Wells Plexi-Pave courts rank among the slowest hardcourts on tour, favoring Iga Swiatek’s topspin-heavy game over the power of Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff—neither of whom has conquered the desert.
No. 1 seed Sabalenka arrives fresh off her Australian Open title defense in January 2025. The Belarusian reached the 2023 Indian Wells final, falling to Elena Rybakina, and posted a 40-9 hard court record last season with a 9-3 mark against the Top 10.
Her big serve and groundstrokes are world-class, but the slow courts blunt her edge. Still, expect her return game to carry her into the second week.
No. 2 seed Swiatek thrives here, claiming titles in 2022 and 2024. Her elite return and grinding style delivered a 34-6 hardcourt record in 2024, including 18-3 at WTA 1000s.
The slower surface hides Swiatek’s powder-puff serve, allowing her to dictate play more easily.
Elena Rybakina’s resume screams elite, with wins over Swiatek and Sabalenka, including her 2023 Indian Wells crown. But her primary coach, Stefano Vukov, banned amid abuse allegations and personal ties, has left her seeking answers.
New coach Davide Sanguinetti is still finding his footing, and the mental toll on Rybakina is evident. She might muscle into the quarters but don’t bet on more in this field.
TEAM USA Places Six Inside Top 20
Serena Williams remains the last American woman to reach the Indian Wells final (2016, losing to Victoria Azarenka) and win it (2001).
With the U.S. drought at over two decades, 2025 could shift the tide—six American women sit in the Top 20, three in the top five.
No. 3 Coco Gauff struggles here, peaking at the 2023 quarters with a 7-4 record. Her power and improved forehand shine globally, but the slow courts stifle her aggression.
No. 4 Jessica Pegula plays .500 ball in the desert (9-9). The Toronto champ and 2025 Adelaide finalist moves well and strikes cleanly, but her return game hasn’t cracked the code.
No. 5 Madison Keys boasts Adelaide and Australian Open titles in 2025, yet her 11-13 Indian Wells mark (best: 2017 quarters) suggests the slow surface curbs her power. She’s been quiet since January—rust could factor in.
No. 10 Emma Navarro, at 2-2 here, reached the third round as her best. Her composure and smooth footwork fit the courts—identical 2-1 marks over Gauff and Keys make her quite a threat.
No. 14 Danielle Collins and No. 18 Amanda Anisimova pack a punch but flounder in the desert—neither’s found their groove.
Don’t Count These Ladies Out
Paula Badosa took home the 2021 title and made a deep run to the 2025 Aussie Open semis. Big groundies and a huge serve make her capable of another deep run.
Karolina Muchova is trending in the right direction. Aside from her second-round AO loss to Naomi Osaka, Muchova and her consistency from both wings reached the semis in Dubai.
Qinwen Zheng is coming off an incredible 2024 season but is riding the struggle bus. Zheng has all the tools to win this event, but the double faults are creeping in, and she’s lost five of seven.
Jasmine Paolini had a breakthrough in 2024 but, like Zheng, has yet to back it up in 2025. Her primary weapons are her resilience and wheels, but Paolini rolled her ankle in her second-round loss in Dubai and hasn’t played since.
Three BNP Paribas Sleepers
Mirra Andreeva dropped just one set en route to her Dubai WTA 1000 title. Her defense, stamina, big-time scalps over Rybakina and Swiatek, and cool head could stir trouble in the desert.
Daria Kasatkina’s 22-14 WTA 1000 run in 2024, plus her 2018 Indian Wells final, marks her as a threat. Her baseline grit and return game don’t need a big serve to win here.
Clara Tauson, Dubai runner-up to Andreeva, brings big shots and an elite serve-return combo. She’s got the tools to shake up this field with quality victories this season over Sabalenka and Muchova.
