Previewing the 2025 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles ATP 1000!
World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz seeks a third straight BNP Paribas Open title as the ATP visits Indian Wells, California, and the first ATP Masters 1000 of the 2025 season.
Join me as I preview the field and share some sleepers and more for the first ATP 1000 of the year, which begins on Wednesday, March 5.
Past Champs in Main Draw
Three former Indian Wells champions are in the field: Carlos Alcaraz (2023-24), Taylor Fritz (2022), and Novak Djokovic (2008, 2011, 2014-16).
Top 2024 ATP 1000 Hard Court Records
Before we jump in, here’s how the top men fared at ATP 1000 hardcourt events in 2024:
- Jannik Sinner: 25-2 (Miami, Cincinnati, Shanghai)
- Carlos Alcaraz: 20-4 (Indian Wells)
- Daniil Medvedev: 18-6
- Andrey Rublev: 16-8
- Taylor Fritz: 15-7
- Casper Ruud: 14-6
- Hubert Hurkacz: 13-7
- Alex de Minaur: 12-8
- Tommy Paul: 11-7
- Grigor Dimitrov: 10-6
The Favorites
No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz, champion in 2023 and 2024, rolls in after a stout 20-4 ATP 1000 hardcourt run last year and a shot at etching his name among the all-time greats.
The Spaniard’s swagger and transitions from defense to attack have earned Carlitos two consecutive PNB Paribas Masters 1000 titles and placed the Spaniard in elite company.
Only five men have won the same Masters 1000 tournament three consecutive times: Andre Agassi (Miami, 1995-1996, 2000), Pete Sampras (Miami, 1993-1994, 1997), Novak Djokovic (with multiple streaks), Roger Federer (Cincinnati, 2005-2007), and Rafael Nadal (Monte Carlo, with nine consecutive titles).
If Carlos Alcaraz wins the Indian Wells title three years in a row, he will become the first man to achieve this feat at Indian Wells. He would join Nadal (with three total titles) and Djokovic and Federer (each with five) as multi-time Masters 1000 titleholders.
The Indian Wells Plexipave courts, some of the slowest hardcourts on tour, play to Carlos Alcaraz’ mix of speed, versatility, and spin—Taylor Fritz and Daniil Medvedev have titles here but lack the Spaniards versatility.
No. 2 Alexander Zverev is 19-5 in Masters 1000 hardcourt events across the past 52 weeks. He has reached the quarters here (twice), but more versatile players have ended his run. Zverev’s big serve and punishing groundies from both sides of the dish usually land him deep into events-just not here.
No. 3 Daniil Medvedev, a 2023 finalist, enjoys the hardcourts (18-6 at 1000s in 2024). Fueled by a massive wingspan, his flat, deep game and defense are long overdue to snag this one. The usually dangerous Medvedev is a two-win-and-done competitor thus far in 2025.
No. 4 Taylor Fritz, the 2022 champ, went 15-7 during the 2024 ATP 1000 hardcourt season. His California surf-and-turf game has led him to the Top 5, but the slower playing surface can be tricky to navigate at times for the top-ranked American.
Five-time champ No. 7 Novak Djokovic (2008, 2011, 2014-16) knows how to win here, but he hasn’t reached the finals of a major event on cement since defeating Sinner in the 2023 ATP Tour Finale. He’s also battling a variety of lower-body injuries.
Team USA Brings Four in the Top 20
Andy Roddick was the last American man to reach the Indian Wells final (2010, losing to Ivan Ljubicic) and to win it (2001).
No. 4 Taylor Fritz, 2022 champ, holds a 17-8 record here. His California surf-and-turf game shines, but he sometimes gets into trouble when players position themselves 15 feet behind the baseline to return his bomb.
No. 10 Tommy Paul has played slightly above .500 ball in the desert, but if the big-hitting American finds a rhythm early, look out. The surface is perfect for his grind and rip lasers style, and he could easily make a deep run or an early exit.
No. 14 Ben Shelton’s 3-2 with a fourth-round run in 2024. His serve is Mach-5, but his groundstrokes are inconsistent. Despite a 10-6 Masters 1000 hardcourt record, Shelton typically has more bark than bite.
No. 18 Frances Tiafoe has been a one-win-and-done player since his disappointing US Open semifinal match with Fritz. He’s one victory above .500 at Indian Wells and too hit or miss (mostly miss) to win this event.
Don’t Count These Players Out
No. 8 Alex de Minaur is coming off a 2024 IW quarterfinals appearance. His 12-8 mark at the 1000s in 2024 and his scrappy style of play make him dangerous on this surface. The Demon is a tough out and has snagged at least one set in his four losses this season (Sinner, Alcaraz, Rublev, and Cilic).
No. 13 Holger Rune boasts a 64% career Masters 1000 winning percentage with the versatility required to make a deep run. He’s dealing with team issues and health issues. When he’s hot, he’s hot, and when he’s not…..you know the rest.
No. 21 Felix Auger-Aliassime reached the quarters (2023) and boasts the third-most hardcourt wins this season. He’ll clock the short offerings with his forehand, but he’s just too darn inconsistent to win anything other than some early-round matches.
Three Sleepers
No. 83 Lerner Tien is playing good ball. He won’t win here, but I’m looking at Tien as an early-round underdog. He’s beaten Zverev already this year, is calm under pressure, and will have a massive American contingent to support his every move.
No. 44 Miomir Kecmanovic is off to an 11-5 start on the hard stuff, including a title in Delray Beach. Kecmanovic is a battler and has won at least one set in 14 of 16 matches. He boasts a big but inconsistent serve and rips from both sides of the dish. He’s another who could win early as an underdog.
No. 15 Ugo Humbert is dangerous on this surface. He’s 9-2 on the hardcourt season with a title in Marseille. He’s smooth, serves well, and has reached the third round in successive campaigns. He’s won at least one set in 10 of 11 this season and could make a deep run.
