Chengdu Open Draw Preview: Shapovalov Dangerous on Fast Courts, Tabilo Defends Title

The Chengdu Open returns with one of the quicker hard-court setups on the ATP Tour, and that immediately puts a premium on serving, first-strike tennis, and players who can take control of points before rallies develop.

That makes this a particularly interesting draw for Denis Shapovalov, while defending champion Alejandro Tabilo returns looking to make another run in conditions that already proved ideal for his game.

Chengdu has very few comfortable sections, though.

Valentin Vacherot leads the field as the top seed, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina returns to competition, and players such as Nuno Borges, Lorenzo Sonego, Jenson Brooksby, and Botic van de Zandschulp add plenty of depth to the draw.

Vacherot Could Face an Early Test

Top seed Valentin Vacherot receives a first-round bye before facing the winner of Aleksandar Kovacevic and a qualifier.

The draw becomes more interesting after that, with either Hubert Hurkacz or Aleksandr Shevchenko potentially waiting in the quarterfinals.

Hurkacz is especially dangerous in Chengdu because of the court speed. When his first serve is landing, these conditions give opponents very little opportunity to get into return games.

Vacherot may be the top seed, but his road through the opening quarter is hardly automatic.

Defending Champion Tabilo Leads a Dangerous Shapovalov Quarter

Denis Shapovalov could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Chengdu’s fast conditions. His left-handed serve and forehand are built for this surface, though Tallon Griekspoor presents a difficult opener.

The pair have split two previous meetings, both on clay.

If Shapovalov advances, the draw opens considerably before a potential quarterfinal against defending champion Alejandro Tabilo.

Tabilo’s lefty serve and aggressive forehand also fit Chengdu perfectly, as he proved by winning the title last season. A Shapovalov-Tabilo quarterfinal would be one of the most explosive matchups in the draw.

Sonego Has an Opportunity in a Wide-Open Section

The Sebastian Baez section is probably the most difficult part of the draw to project.

Baez opens against Jenson Brooksby, while James Duckworth faces Lorenzo Sonego. Miomir Kecmanovic begins against a qualifier, with Botic van de Zandschulp receiving a first-round bye.

Brooksby is capable of making Baez uncomfortable, particularly on a surface that does not naturally favor the Argentine’s preferred style.

Sonego may have the best setup in this portion of the bracket. His serve and forehand should receive plenty of help from the conditions, and he is comfortable playing the abbreviated points Chengdu often produces.

Van de Zandschulp should not be overlooked either. He proved again during his strong U.S. Open run that he remains an extremely difficult hard-court opponent when his confidence is high.

This section feels genuinely open, with Sonego, Brooksby, Kecmanovic, and Van de Zandschulp all capable of coming through.

Davidovich Fokina Returns, but Borges Looms

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina returns to the tour in the bottom quarter and receives a favorable entry point into the tournament.

After a first-round bye, he will meet Juan Manuel Cerundolo or wild card Yi Zhou.

That should give Davidovich Fokina an opportunity to work his way back into competitive rhythm, but Nuno Borges could eventually present a much more serious obstacle.

Borges opens against Camilo Ugo Carabelli and owns the more relevant head-to-head result for these conditions. He defeated Davidovich Fokina in straight sets at the 2024 Australian Open before the Spaniard answered with a 6-2, 6-3 victory on clay in Madrid the following year.

On a fast hard court, Borges has enough serve and enough ability to take the ball early to prevent Davidovich Fokina from settling into long, physical exchanges.

If they meet in Chengdu, that could become one of the better quarterfinals of the tournament.

Chengdu Open Outlook

Court speed will shape this tournament more than almost anything else.

Players who can serve big, attack quickly, and finish points on the first ball should have a significant advantage, which immediately boosts the stock of players like Shapovalov, Tabilo, Hurkacz, and Sonego.

Shapovalov may be the most interesting player in the draw because these conditions maximize his biggest weapons. Tabilo has already shown he can win here, while the Borges-Davidovich Fokina section and the wide-open Baez quarter could easily produce surprises.

There are no guarantees in Chengdu, but on courts this fast, hesitation usually gets punished.