BIG FOE Rolls Into the 2026 US Open Quarterfinals

The 2026 US Open is down to the business end, and several players are starting to separate themselves.

Frances Tiafoe is playing the best tennis of his career. Carlos Alcaraz looks like he never left. Aryna Sabalenka keeps piling up historic numbers, while Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro have given the American women plenty to feel good about.

And the American men could be on the verge of something we haven’t seen in more than three decades.

Here are my latest 2026 US Open quarterfinal observations from the 2026 US Open, part of our ongoing US Open coverage.

Aryna Sabalenka’s consistency is becoming historic

Aryna Sabalenka has reached the US Open quarterfinals for six consecutive years, becoming the first woman to do it since Serena Williams.

She has also reached nine consecutive hard-court Grand Slam quarterfinals, tying Gabriela Sabatini and Lindsay Davenport.

Sabalenka gets Linda Noskova next and owns a 2-0 lifetime record against her.

At this point, getting deep into hard-court majors has become almost automatic.

Michael Chang is teaching Learner Tien how to win

Learner Tien has won the first five five-set matches of his Grand Slam career, joining Mats Wilander and Tomas Berdych as the only players under 21 in the Open Era to accomplish it.

Michael Chang deserves plenty of credit.

Tien is the reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion, and we also saw his improvement at Roland Garros on a surface that has never suited him particularly well.

Now he gets Karen Khachanov.

That should tell us even more.

Tommy Paul is a rich man’s Alex de Minaur

Tommy Paul played Carlos Alcaraz tough despite losing in straight sets.

Paul has tremendous wheels, excellent tennis IQ, solid groundstrokes and is a terrific defender.

The problem is that, like Alex de Minaur, he needs almost everything to go right against the very best.

Eventually he runs into somebody with several ways to hurt him.

Against Carlos Alcaraz, defending and competing are not enough.

You need weapons.

Carlos Alcaraz looks like he never left

Carlos Alcaraz missed nearly five months and somehow came back looking like he had been gone for five days.

The forehand is enormous, the drop shot is still ridiculous, the movement looks sharp, and physically he looks bigger.

If Alcaraz wins this US Open after that kind of layoff, the rest of the Top 10 should be sick about it.

You cannot give a player this talented nearly five months off and then let him walk back onto the tour and take your Grand Slam.

Alex Michelsen is finding his way back

Alex Michelsen came into the US Open ranked No. 31 in my power rankings, and now he is into the quarterfinals.

I love this kid’s game.

He is brave, clever and highly skilled, and he has fought through injuries, confidence issues and even stepped back down to Challenger events when necessary.

I especially like how comfortable he looks at the net.

Michelsen won 26 of 34 net points, 76%, against Tomas Martin Etcheverry.

The confidence is coming back.

BIG FOE. BIG FOE. BIG FOE.

Frances Tiafoe took out Daniil Medvedev in straight sets and improved to 10-0 at Louis Armstrong Stadium.

This is the best season of his career.

Tiafoe is 40-16 in 2026, good for a 71% winning percentage, and the swagger is pouring out of him.

I love the peacocking.

He is strutting around Armstrong as if the place belongs to him.

At this point, maybe it does.

Tiafoe is also 2-0 lifetime against quarterfinal opponent Alex Michelsen.

The American men could make history

Frances Tiafoe, Alex Michelsen and Ben Shelton are already into the quarterfinals.

If Learner Tien beats Karen Khachanov, the United States would have four men in the US Open quarterfinals for the first time since 1995.

Look at the Americans who made it that year:

• Pete Sampras — Hall of Famer
• Andre Agassi — Hall of Famer
• Jim Courier — Hall of Famer
• Michael Chang — Hall of Famer
• Patrick McEnroe — President of the International Tennis Hall of Fame

That gives you some idea of the company this American group is chasing.

Jessica Pegula might finally be ready

Jessica Pegula is back in the US Open quarterfinals, and this is starting to feel like a genuine opportunity.

Pegula leads the WTA this season with 49 overall match wins and 33 hard-court victories.

She has also reached the quarterfinals or better at three of the four majors this year.

Pegula has always been consistent.

The question has been whether she could finally put together the run needed to win a major.

Right now, I think she can.

Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz is must-see TV

Ben Shelton just played one of the most complete matches I’ve seen from him, taking out Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets.

He returned well, picked his spots, and still brought the big serve.

Shelton is 0-3 against Carlos Alcaraz, but this is a much better version of Big Benny than the one Alcaraz saw in their first two meetings.

If Shelton goes bombs away inside Arthur Ashe Stadium on Tuesday night, this could get very interesting.

Emma Navarro is rediscovering her best tennis

Emma Navarro is into her fourth career Grand Slam quarterfinal, and her hard-court game is starting to look familiar again.

Navarro has now won four consecutive WTA-level hard-court matches for the first time since winning the title in Merida last season.

She was excellent against Anna Kalinskaya, particularly when the important points arrived.

Navarro has battled through health issues and some difficult stretches, but the work is showing again.

Now she gets Jessica Pegula.

Battle of the silver spoons, baby.

Final Thoughts

The field is getting smaller, but the stories are getting better.

Sabalenka keeps making history. Pegula looks dangerous. Navarro has earned her way here. Shelton gets a massive test against Alcaraz, and Michelsen continues to reward the patience people have shown in his development.

Then there is Tiafoe.

BIG FOE is rolling, the confidence is obvious, and right now Louis Armstrong Stadium might as well have his name on the door.

And if Learner Tien can join Tiafoe, Michelsen and Shelton in the quarterfinals, American men’s tennis will have done something it has not done at the US Open since 1995.

That would be one hell of a way to start the second week.