10 US Open Observations Heading Into the Third Round

The first two rounds of the 2026 US Open have given us plenty to think about.

Some contenders are beginning to separate themselves, several sections of the draw have blown wide open, and some of the players we questioned before the tournament are already gone.

The third round is where things should really start getting interesting.

Here are 10 observations as we head into the weekend in New York, part of our ongoing 2026 US Open coverage.

Alex de Minaur Looks More Sweet 16 Than Elite

I questioned the Alex de Minaur Top 3 hype back in December because I didn’t think he had enough weapons to consistently beat elite players. That concern hasn’t disappeared. De Minaur is 15-12 against the Top 50 this year and 2-2 against the Top 10.

He’s good enough to beat the players he’s supposed to beat most weeks, but he’s more of a Sweet 16 guy. Worse, the swagger and confidence that once carried him look gone.

Taylor Fritz Is Taking Care of Business

Taylor Fritz is making our 39% prediction that he will reach the quarterfinals look pretty damn good. Fritz demolished Mattia Bellucci 6-0, 6-1, 6-1 and has looked terrific since returning from the knee tendinitis that cost him most of the clay season.

He’s healthy, serving well, conserving energy and going wham, bam, thank you, ma’am, through this draw. Felix Auger-Aliassime is gone, too. The road keeps getting better.

Alexandra Eala Has Become Box Office

Alexandra Eala is into the third round, but the bigger story might be what’s happening around her. The Filipino audience is showing up, buying tickets and making an unbelievable amount of noise.

You could hear it through the television on Thursday. It was incredible.

Eala has always played with belief, so that isn’t new. What is new is the atmosphere following her around New York. Eala has become one of this tournament’s genuine attractions.

Madison Keys vs. Qinwen Zheng Could Be a War

Madison Keys saved five match points and came back from 2-5 down in the third set against Anna Bondar. Qinwen Zheng has won six straight and is starting to rip the ball again without the arm sleeve.

These are two former Top 10 players trying to reclaim ground after physical problems disrupted their careers. Keys just survived the kind of match that can unleash Beast Mode Madison. Zheng is rolling.

Saturday should be a fucking war.

Naomi Osaka Looks Second-Week Tough

Naomi Osaka has won two straight and looks tough. Maybe not US Open champion tough yet, but certainly tough enough to reach the fourth round and cause problems once she gets there.

Elise Mertens is experienced enough to make Osaka work, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that match goes three sets. If Osaka advances, she will face the Keys-Zheng winner on Monday night.

Holy shit. That could be one hell of a match.

I Don’t Trust Lorenzo Musetti Anymore

Lorenzo Musetti owns one of the most beautiful one-handed backhands in tennis, but beauty only gets you so far. He reached the Hong Kong final and Australian Open quarterfinals before missing Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

He showed signs of life again with quarterfinal runs in Washington and Cincinnati, then crashed out here while less than 100%. Musetti can still produce exquisite tennis. I just don’t know how I’m supposed to trust him anymore.

Coco Gauff Is Going Deep

Coco Gauff came through a difficult match against Paula Badosa and did almost everything I wanted to see. She served consistently, stayed positive, showed no bad body language, and didn’t flinch when things got tight.

Gauff has won four of her last five hard-court tiebreakers. That matters. She looks brave again, and her section of the draw is extremely manageable.

I think she reaches at least the semifinals.

Actually, forget that. I think Coco Gauff wins this tournament.

The Americans Are Rolling

Seeded Americans are 24-1 through the first two rounds of the US Open.

That’s the stat. That is all.

Friday gives them another opportunity to pile onto it. Jessica Pegula, Ben Shelton, Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe, Emma Navarro, Alex Michelsen and others are in action, while unseeded Taylor Townsend has been playing terrific tennis.

I think an American woman wins this tournament. The American men have a chance, too, but I’m still leaning elsewhere.

Alexander Zverev Has the Draw, But He’s Making It Hard

Alex de Minaur’s loss opened a beautiful road for Alexander Zverev, but apparently nobody told Zverev it was supposed to be easy. He’s needed five sets in each of his first two matches.

The good news is that he’s survived; de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti are gone, and the road to the semifinals remains extremely manageable. The question now is whether Zverev is playing himself into form or spending energy he’ll desperately need later.

Why Crush & Rush News Matters

Preparing for tournaments is what coaches do. We study form, health, surfaces, matchups, draws, confidence, and warning signs before the first ball is struck.

That’s why Crush & Rush News questioned Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar, Alex de Minaur, Jack Draper, and Carlos Alcaraz before this tournament while people were betting on them.

Four are already gone.

Alcaraz is the last one standing, and I still don’t feel it.

We aren’t here to follow the crowd. We’re here to identify where the crowd might be wrong.

Final Thoughts

Now the US Open gets serious.

Keys-Zheng could be a war. Naomi Osaka is lurking behind them. Coco Gauff looks increasingly dangerous, and the Americans have been rolling through New York.

Taylor Fritz is exactly where we wanted him. Alexander Zverev has survived ten sets of tennis and somehow still has a beautiful draw sitting in front of him.

And several players we questioned before the tournament are already watching from home.

That’s what the first two rounds told me.

Now let’s see what the third round has to say.