Why I’m Fading Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open Men’s Futures Market

Carlos Alcaraz is the second favorite to win the US Open, but I’m having a hard time getting behind the defending champion after he hasn’t played a competitive match since April 13.

Maybe Carlitos walks into New York and picks up right where he left off, but I’m not willing to bet on it.

And while I’m at it, I’ve got four other popular money-getters I’m fading in the US Open men’s futures market.

Jack Draper

Last year, we were talking about Jack Draper as a potential Grand Slam champion.

This year, he is an auto fade for me.

The talent is there. He rose to No. 4 in the rankings in June 2025, and when healthy, the guy can win big tournaments on multiple surfaces.

But Draper has played only 15 matches since his second-round loss at the 2025 US Open, and he hasn’t played a Slam since.

I just can’t get with Jack Draper. Even at 1 cent on Kalshi, that’s not a big enough price for me to sprinkle on a kid with a bum arm.

Arthur Fils

Arthur Fils is my guy. I love watching him work because, when healthy, Fils can turn anyone’s lights out on any surface.

The thing is, he’s really not playing very well and hasn’t since reinjuring his hip in Rome, and he hasn’t been the same since.

The biggest dip has been his break-of-serve rate. He’s two points lower at 21% than his career mark, and he’s holding serve roughly 85% of the time on his hard-court service games, which is one point below his season average.

Sure, he reached the quarters in Montreal, and good for him. The problem I have with betting on him to win the 2026 US Open is that he’s missed five of the last six Slams with that bum hip, and maybe titles in the best-of-five format ain’t happening in New York.

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz is the second favorite everywhere, but why?

Sure, he’s the defending champion, but the guy hasn’t played a competitive match since April 13, and he’s just going to waltz into the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center and successfully defend his crown?

When healthy, yes.

But I’m having difficulty believing Carlitos is even going to turn up, let alone win a Grand Slam title.

Rafael Jodar

What a story Rafael Jodar has been this season.

He’s about to become the first man in the Open Era to qualify for the ATP Tour Finals as well as the Next Gen Final in the same season.

He’s won eight of his last 10 hard-court matches heading into Cincinnati, but something tells me the 2026 US Open won’t be the success some bettors are expecting, as he is 1-4 this season against the Top 10.

He’ll likely need to beat a top-tenner, and that means he’s not worth the 4 cents we’re getting at Kalshi.

Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur is a popular fella, but he’s only a top-10 player in name only.

Sure, he does a lot of nice things, but his 9-10 mark against the Top 20 and 4-7 mark against the game’s elite doesn’t leave the warm, fuzzy feeling his actual ranking deserves.

Not to pile on to the young man, but he’s never gone past the quarterfinal stage in any of his 37 Grand Slam appearances.

I can’t throw away money on a player like that, and neither should you.

Phil Naessens

Phil Naessens has spent decades in sports as a broadcaster, author, journalist, professional tennis coach, and betting analyst. As the founder and editor of Crush & Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, he combines firsthand coaching experience with years of sports media and publishing to deliver thoughtful tennis analysis, tournament coverage, player features, and transparent betting insights built around value, and not hype.