MAIN DRAW
OUT: Opelka, Collignon
IN: Vukic, Muller
NEXT: Halys
QUALIFYING
OUT: Dimitrov, Gojo, Vukic, Muller, Taberner
IN: Faria, Piros, Rodesch, Echargui, B. Harris
NEXT: Jacquet
Updated: May 1, 2026
The 2026 Italian Open ATP Masters sees a major shift before a ball is even struck, with Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz both pulling out of the event.
With the defending champion sidelined, last year’s runner-up Jannik Sinner now enters Rome as the overwhelming favorite on home soil.
This piece breaks down the draw times, entry list, withdrawals, and past champions heading into one of the most important clay-court stops of the season, the 2026 Italian Open ATP Masters, on May 6, 2026
Crush & Rush News: ATP & WTA Entry Lists
Stay ahead of the draw. Get the definitive look at the field before the first ball is struck.
Italian Open Intelligence Center
Everything you need to prepare for the 2026 Italian Open ATP Masters can be found in Phil’s Italian Open Intelligence Center.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia 2026
Intelligence Command Center
🇮🇹 The Sinner Factor
MEN’S DRAW BREAKDOWN🇮🇹 Sabalenka’s Path
WOMEN’S DRAW BREAKDOWN👑 Queen of Clay?
WTA Draw Date & Betting Trends📊 Draw Analysis
ATP Draw Times & Past Champions⚠️ Field Alert
Wild Cards & Late WithdrawalsDraws & Tournament Vitals
ATP Power Rankings
View ATP Top 100WTA Power Rankings
View WTA Top 100Italian Open ATP Masters Tourney Details
Draw Reveal: May 3, 1 PM local time
Main Draw Begins: May 6
Defending Champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Entry List: Italian Open Men’s Singles entry list
Past 5 Italian Open Champions
As you can plainly see, clay-court grinders with massive return games have won the Men’s Italian Open ATP Masters singles title.
Kings of the Clay
ATP Rome: The Last 5 Reigning Champs
| Year | The Champion | The Runner-Up | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Rafael Nadal (10/10) | N. Djokovic | 7–5, 1–6, 6–3 |
| 2022 | Novak Djokovic (6/6) | S. Tsitsipas | 6–0, 7–6(7–5) |
| 2023 | Daniil Medvedev (1/1) | H. Rune | 7–5, 7–5 |
| 2024 | Alexander Zverev (2/2) | N. Jarry | 6–4, 7–5 |
| 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz (1/1) | J. Sinner | 7–6(7–5), 6–1 |
Italian Open ATP Masters Betting Trends (2014-2025)
Phil has gathered up all the pertinent round-by-round Italian Open ATP Masters betting trends from 2012 to 2025.
Italian Open Betting Statistics
Internazionali BNL d’Italia · 2014–2025 · ATP 1000
| Favorite | Underdog | Over / Under | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round | Matches | Win % | ML ROI | Win % | ML ROI | Avg Games | Over % | Under % |
| 1st Round | 264 | 66.7% | −2.6% | 33.3% | −11.6% | 23.1 | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 2nd Round | 208 | 70.2% | −7.3% | 29.8% | −11.7% | 22.0 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 3rd Round | 104 | 76.9% | +2.2% | 23.1% | −8.5% | 22.2 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 4th Round | 24 | 70.8% | −3.5% | 29.2% | −8.3% | 24.2 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Quarterfinals | 40 | 75.0% | +1.6% | 25.0% | −19.6% | 21.4 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Semifinals | 20 | 90.0% | +16.8% | 10.0% | −78.3% | 24.0 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| The Final | 10 | 50.0% | −31.7% | 50.0% | +39.0% | 21.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
ROI calculated per $100 flat bet on moneyline. Odds source: Pinnacle/market average (AvgW / AvgL). Over/Under based on total games played vs. per-round mean line. Sample: 670 matches, 2014–2025 (excl. 2020–2021).
Key Takeaways
- Favorites win consistently early, around 66 to 70 percent in the first two rounds
- Early-round favorites are not profitable, with negative ROI despite high win rates
- Third round is the first spot where favorites show a positive return
- Quarterfinals still favor top players, but profits are small and margins tighten
- Semifinals heavily favor favorites, winning 90 percent with strong ROI
- The final is unpredictable, split 50 50 with underdogs showing strong profit
- Unders hit more often than overs across most rounds, especially early
- Match length stays consistent, usually around 21 to 24 games
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
