The Australian Open women’s Round of 16 begins in the top half of the draw, with a mix of power, experience, and rising talent set to compete for quarterfinal spots in Melbourne.
Read on as I take a closer look at tonight’s Australian Open women’s Round of 16 matchups.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Victoria Mboko
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka faces Victoria Mboko for the first time, with a quarterfinal spot on the line.
Sabalenka has moved through the opening rounds behind her serve and first-strike power, while Mboko continues to impress with her power and resilience in her first deep run at a major.
The Canadian will have her hands full. Sabalenka has won 24 of her past 25 matches at Melbourne Park.
Yulia Putintseva vs Iva Jovic
The battle of the unseeded pits Yulia Putintseva against Iva Jovic in a matchup that could come down to patience.
Putintseva brings a mix of pace changes and disruption, while Jovic relies on cleaner ball striking and her serve-plus-one patterns.
This match may ultimately be decided by nerves, with both players chasing a first career Australian Open quarterfinal.
Coco Gauf vs Karolína Muchová
Coco Gauff brings a 4–0 head-to-head edge into her meeting with Karolína Muchová.
Gauff’s speed and defense have carried her into the second week, while Muchova’s variety and touch can cause Gauff damage when her timing is right.
Still, their previous meetings have been one-sided, and this matchup shapes up to follow a similar script.
Elina Svitolina vs. Mirra Andreeva
The final match in the top half features Elina Svitolina against Mirra Andreeva.
Svitolina relies on experience and discipline in long rallies, while Andreeva continues to play with confidence beyond her years.
Andreeva beat Svitolina in straight sets at Indian Wells, but I suspect the Ukrainian will make a match of it in the Melbourne heat.
For Further Reading
Favorites vs Underdogs — The Big Picture
WTA betting markets consistently reward underdogs more than favorites, especially at short prices. High win percentages often mask poor returns, while lesser-known players quietly generate long-term value.
This section focuses on:
- why win rate does not equal profitability
- where favorites consistently burn units
- how underdogs outperform expectations over full seasons
- Top 25 WTA Underdog Performers — Overall Net Profit (Full Season)
- Best WTA Top 10 Players to Bet On: Who Makes Money for Bettors — and Who Burns It
Together, these results show why WTA betting success is driven more by price discipline and volatility management than by backing the most prominent names.
The WTA Star Tax (Short-Price Reality)
Elite WTA players win a lot of matches — but bettors often overpay for those wins. The “Star Tax” refers to inflated prices driven by reputation, particularly at Grand Slams and early rounds.
This section explains:
- why short-priced favorites (-150 and beyond) underperform
- how public perception skews pricing
- where break-even math quietly fails
The WTA Star Tax refers to the premium bettors pay for elite names, particularly at short prices where the margin for error disappears.
Biggest WTA Betting Upsets
The WTA Tour produces frequent and often extreme upsets, driven by momentum swings, fragile second serves, and matchup volatility. These results are not random — they tend to cluster in specific tournament contexts.
This section highlights:
- the largest WTA underdog wins by odds
- where markets were most wrong
- early-round versus late-round chaos
WTA upsets tend to cluster in the early rounds and at high-profile events, where pricing lags behind matchup reality and momentum swings are magnified.
Most Profitable WTA Players for Bettors
The most profitable WTA players are rarely the most famous. Consistency, pricing discipline, and matchup flexibility matter more than rankings or titles.
This section reframes success:
- from “best players” to “best bets”
- from trophies to unit performance
- from hype to sustainability
- Top 25 WTA Underdog Performers — Overall Net Profit (Full Season)
- Best WTA Top 10 Players to Bet On: Who Makes Money for Bettors — and Who Burns It
Long-term profitability on the WTA Tour is driven by pricing discipline and matchup flexibility, not rankings or title counts.
Bagels, Breadsticks & Market Volatility
Lopsided sets (6–0, 6–1) occur more frequently on the WTA Tour and often distort future pricing. These scorelines exaggerate dominance and create false certainty in subsequent matches.
This section examines:
- why blowouts mislead betting markets
- how momentum gets overvalued
- where regression hits hardest
The WTA Oven: Top 20 Bagel and Breadstick Humiliations on the WTA Tour in 2025
Tournament-Level Betting Tendencies
Betting behavior shifts dramatically at Grand Slams, early rounds, and narrative-heavy events.
Reputation often outweighs form, and pricing becomes less flexible as public money concentrates on familiar names.
This section explores:
- Grand Slam volatility
- early-round inefficiencies
- how entry lists and star power affect odds
Australian Open–Focused Anchors
- Which Women Can Actually Win the 2026 Australian Open — 2026 Australian Open Women’s Contenders!
- 2026 Australian Open Women’s Singles Championship Odds
- American Firepower Headlines 2026 Australian Open Women’s Entry List
- Coaches Corner: Five First-Time WTA Grand Slam Champions-in-Waiting
- The 5 Most Over-Hyped WTA “Stars” Heading Into 2026
- 10 Biggest 2025 Australian Open WTA Betting Upsets
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
