2025 Men’s Italian Open Betting Preview: The Return of Sinner!

Defending champ Alexander Zverev is set to defend his title when the Italian Open gets underway on Wednesday, May 7.

Local favorite Jannik Sinner makes his return from serving a three-month suspension for a PEDS infraction, and he’ll look to continue a 20-match winning streak when he opens play on Saturday.

Join me as I break down the main draw and offer a prediction for the Italian Open, beginning Wednesday, May 7.

Don’t forget to check out our accompanying Italian Open WTA 1000 preview and prediction piece. 

Italian Open Main Bracket

2025 Italian Open Betting Odds by DraftKings

Sinner Returns to the ATP Tour

The return of World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is the big story in Rome. Sinner sat out a controversial, three-month suspension and returns to his home event riding a 20-match winning streak.

Sinner has never gone past the semis in his home event, and his quarter is filled with potential landmines and potholes, such as;

• Casper Ruud is a three-timer semifinalist with a 15-5 mark in Rome and fresh off his first ATP 1000 title in Madrid.
• Francisco Cerundolo is a former quarterfinalist (2023) with a strong clay-court game but has not won a title on the dirt.
• Ben Shelton has shown improvement on the clay, but these courts take away his greatest weapon while revealing his biggest weakness.
• Sebastian Korda is a good clay court player, but not a great one. He’s 1-3 at the Italian Open with a potential third-rounder with Shelton.

Fritz Terrific Italian Open Draw

Taylor Fritz has a chance to make some noise heading into Roland Garros. Fritz has a straight shot into a likely Round of 16 matchup with probably Andrey Rublev and possibly Alex de Minaur in the quarter.

Fritz is coming off his best Italian Open result (quarters) but could eclipse this against these men in his quarter.

• Alex de Minaur is having a solid 2025 clay court season but is 4-6 in the Eternal City.
• Jakub Mensic has a monster game and a decent draw with a 42-27 lifetime clay court record.
• Andrey Rublev is a former quarterfinalist (2022), but his past year’s results and 7-6 Italian Open record are less than encouraging.
• Tommy Paul has the draw to defend his semifinal points, but his 2025 Euro clay-court campaign has been less than encouraging.
• Tomas Machac is a riddle. He can be a force when healthy, but too many early retirements have me firmly off the young Czech.
• Felix Auger-Aliassime seeks his first clay-court victory of the season, but his 5-6 mark in the Eternal City screams stay away from FAA.

POPCORN MATCHUP ALERT: Teen sensation Joao Fonseca meets the always tough at a Masters 1000 event Fabian Marozsan in a must-see, 1st round popcorn match on Thursday.

Carlos Alcaraz has Solid Italian Open Draw

Carlos Alcaraz skipped Madrid with an injury, but he’s the hottest clay-court player. After winning Monte Carlo and nearly winning Barcelona, he has the draw to make a deep Italian Open run.

Alcaraz could meet Jack Draper in the quarter. Carlitos is just 1-1 in the Eternal City but can get through his quarter against these ATP Tour players.

• Jack Draper is coming off the best clay court result of his life, but the big-hitting Brit won’t find it easy blasting through Eternal City field.
• Sebastian Baez is probably the best true clay-courter in the field, but he’s never made it past the Italian Open Round of 32.
• Ugo Humbert has a nice game, but a potential third-rounder with Holger Rune scares me off the left-handed Frenchman.
• Holger Rune took out Alcaraz in Barca, and he has the type of hit-or-miss grinding game that can make a deep Italian Open run.
• Grigor Dimitrov has a lovely game, but his run to his first Italian Open title will likely end against Alcaraz.

Defending Champ Zverev Riding Struggle Bus

Australian Open finalist Alexander Zverev won Munich, but outside of that, he’s had awful results by his lofty standards. He has 1000 points to defend, and his quarter is going to be a bitch to get through.

Zverev has the game to reach the semis, but he’s in the same quarter with many talented clay-court players looking to take him out.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has injury concerns heading into this event, but he’s a former finalist (2022) with an 18-7 Italian Open record.

Arthur Fils has a tremendous 2025 European Clay Court campaign, but the Rome dirt doesn’t suit his big-hitting game.

Lorenzo Musetti is on the rise, and he’ll have the crowd on his side with a draw and the game to make some real noise in his home tourney.

Daniil Medvedev is a former champion (2023) but seems more interested these days in arguing with the chair than he is in winning titles.

Phil Naessens Italian Open Prediction

The fans would love to see a Sinner/Alcaraz final, which could happen.

Sinner looks fit, but he hasn’t played a real match since successfully defending his Australian Open crown. He’ll have overwhelming fan support, and while Ruud and Cerundolo will challenge, it wouldn’t surprise me if Sinner winds up winning this event.

Fritz has the draw to be his likely opponent. The American No. 1 is coming off his best Italian Open result, but an ab injury has slowed his spring clay season.

Still, Fritz has a winnable draw but is 1-4 against his Italian rival.

The other half of the draw is filled with question marks. Alcaraz has some sort of injury but has a sweet draw, and I can see him rolling to at least the semis.

Zverev has a hard road even to reach the quarters. He’s dropped five of six on the dirt to potential Round of 16 opponent Tsitsipas and is 1-1 on clay to Fils.

The one I like to challenge Alcaraz is Musetti. He has a sweet draw and is 1-1 on the dirt against Zverev. The local favorite is 10-2 on clay courts this season but only 1-3 on this surface against Alcaraz.

A Sinner/Alcaraz finale would be sweet. They are 1-1 H2H as pros on this surface, with Alcaraz holding a slim 6-4 H2H edge over his Italian rival.

I would love to bet on Alcaraz, but he’s hurt with a TON of points to defend at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Sinner is fresh as a daisy, and I’m sure the World No. 1 enjoyed watching his contemporaries fail to gain any ground on him while he was away.

Phil Naessens Italian Open Prediction: Jannik Sinner