The ladies of the WTA Tour descend on the Eternal City for the start of the 2025 Italian Open WTA 1000 event.
Defending champion Iga Swiatek leads a robust field filled with players looking to snatch away the title from the “Queen of Clay”.
Join me as I break down the field and offer my prediction for the 2025 Italian Open, beginning Tuesday, May 6.
2025 Italian Open Main Draw Bracket
2025 Italian Open Championship Odds by BetMGM
Aryna Sabalenka Italian Open Difficult Draw
Red-hot Aryna Sabalenka has a nightmare draw if she hopes to win her third consecutive WTA 1000 event.
Sabalenka is the hottest player on tour. Since Indian Wells, she’s 20-2 with two WTA 1000 titles, including her third Madrid Open title.
The World No. 1 is in the same quarter as Qinwen Zheng. Her path to her first Italian Open title is filled with potholes, but a potential semifinal with Coco Gauff or Mirra Andreeva would be must see TV.
Zheng won the Gold Medal at Roland Garros, but her results this season have been spotty. She’ll likely face former champ Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16, but that’s likely where her run ends.
Players to Watch in Sabalenka’s Quarter
Anastasia Potapova reached the Round of 16 at Stuttgart and Madrid with a 3-4 lifetime mark in Rome.
Charleston Open finalist Sofia Kenin crashed out early in Madrid and has never reached the Round of 32 in Rome.
Former Rome semifinalist Daria Kasatkina (2022) reached the Round of 16 at Charleston but crashed early in Madrid.
Former champ Elena Rybakina (2023) hasn’t won a title since Stuttgart (2024) but can make a deep run here.
Camila Osorio crashed out early in Madrid, but the Bogoto Open champ can be dangerous on this surface.
Coco Gauff Hoping for Deep Italian Open Run
Madrid finalist Coco Gauff doesn’t have much standing in her way from a possible quarterfinal showdown with teen sensation Mirra Andreeva.
Gauff looked as solid as Sears in Madrid. Her serve wasn’t her enemy, and she has an excellent chance at a rematch with Sabalenka. The American No. 1 defeated Andreeva twice on the dirt and thrice overall.
Andreeva bested Sabalenka to win her maiden Indian Wells crown. Her round-of-16 finishes at Stuttgart and Madrid prove she is capable on this surface, but her draw to reach a quarterfinal clash with Gauff won’t be easy.
Players to Watch in Gauff’s Italian Open Quarter
Red-hot Ekaterina Alexandrova has a less-than-encouraging 2-6 record in Rome but reached the semis at Charleston and Stuttgart and fell one match shy of a Madrid quarterfinal.
Former quarterfinalist Amanda Anisimova has struggled on the dirt this spring and is only 7-6 here in Rome.
Emma Navarro reached the fourth round at Roland Garros, but her clay court results have been spotty since.
Last year’s quarterfinalist, Clara Tauson, has mixed results on the dirt since then.
Paolini Home Cooking
Jasmine Paolini has never passed the second round here. Still, the surprise 2024 French Open finalist is starting to heat up. Ons Jabuer is likely the only one in her way of a potential quarterfinal showdown with Charleston Open champ Jessica Pegula.
Pegula’s road does have some speedbumps; Elise Mertens could await in the third round, followed by a potential matchup with Diana Shnaider in the Round of 16.
Players to Watch in Paolini’s Rome Quarter
Stuttgart champ Jelena Ostapenko crashed out early in Madrid, but she’s a former French Open champ (2017) who’s reached the quarters or better here four times since 2018.
Karolina Muchova hasn’t played since Miami, but the 2023 French Open runner-up can be dangerous on this surface.
Diana Shnaider reached the Round of 16 in all three clay court events leading to Rome but is 0-2 straight up against potential Round of 16 opponent Pegula.
Elise Mertens is playing decent ball on the dirt with a 3-1 career mark over Pegula, including a straight setter at Roland Garros (2023).
Iga Swiatek Seeks to Defend Rome Title
Three-time Rome champ Iga Swiatek hasn’t won a tourney anywhere since her 2024 French Open triumph. She could meet red-hot two-time former Rome champion Elina Svitolina in the Round of 16, with potentially Madison Keys in the semis.
Keys has always fared well here. The 2016 finalist reached last year’s quarters, but her draw is solid. Anna Kalinskaya in the third round and maybe Paula Badosa in the fourth stand in the way of a potential quarterfinal encounter with Swiatek.
Players to Watch in Swiatek’s Rome Quarter
Danielle Collins, last year’s semifinalist, hasn’t played since Charleston. Her aggressive game fares well here, but her health is a question.
Liudmila Samsonova has a terrific draw but is 1-5 SU against potential third-round opponent Keys.
Elena Svitolina won Rouen and reached the Madrid semis. She’s won this title twice and has a 1-3 SU record against Swiatek.
Paula Badosa has battled injuries, but if Naomi Osaka advances, we could have a potential second-round popcorn matchup.
Phil Naessens Italian Open Prediction
Let’s see if we can’t make it two winning predictions in a row 🙂
Iga Swiatek is the defending champ, but she can’t seem to find her way out of an 11-month titleless funk she’s in.
Her troubles don’t seem technical; losing to Italy in the BJK Cup final threw her into a psychological tailspin she’s been unable to correct.
Swiatek has plenty of points to defend from now through Roland Garros, and Rome is hers to win. There’s a reality here; if Swiatek plays well, no one in her half of the draw can beat her.
Only one or two women in the entire draw can regularly take Swiatek out on this surface. Thankfully for her, no one on that short list is immediately standing in her way until a potential final, and I believe Swiatek will reach the Italian Open final.
Sabalenka has dominated the tour over the past 18 months. She walloped Gauff in the Madrid final and has been nearly unbeatable across the past month.
I would love to back Sabalenka, but she’s played so much awesome tennis that a letdown could easily happen, which is why I’m not backing her.
Gauff pitched a double-breadstick beating over Iga in Madrid, but Coco is 1-10 SU against the Polish No. 1, and Gauff’s serve and rocket backhand get slowed by the dirt.
There isn’t anyone else on the other side of the draw, except Andreeva, that I like to break through the top half. Andreeva is 2-1 lifetime over Swiatek (all on hard courts), and I’m betting on Iga winning the Italian Open.
Phil Naessens Italian Open Prediction: Iga Swiatek
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
