Novak Djokovic Is Not the Same Player. He Can Still Win the US Open.

Yes, Novak Djokovic is playing the 2026 US Open, and despite entering New York with more questions than usual, he remains a legitimate threat to win a record-extending 25th Grand Slam title.

Djokovic is no longer the overwhelming force who spent years controlling the biggest tournaments on the calendar.

His 2026 season has included earlier losses, physical questions, and more vulnerability against the younger generation.

But writing him off at the US Open would be a mistake.

He may not be the same player.

He can still win the US Open.

This article is part of our ongoing 2026 US Open coverage.

The Djokovic of Old Was Suffocating

At his peak, Djokovic wasn’t simply a great returner. He could make holding serve feel exhausting.

Over his career, Djokovic has broken serve 31.4% of the time and won 41.9% of his return points.

At the US Open, those numbers are even better. Djokovic owns a remarkable 95-15 career record in New York, with a 33.3% break rate and 42.6% of return points won.

That was Djokovic at his most terrifying.

You could serve well and still lose the game. You could get ahead and still feel him hanging around. Eventually, he would make you play one more ball, then another, then another.

That version of Djokovic didn’t merely hold serve.

He took yours away.

This Djokovic Is Different

The 39-year-old Djokovic isn’t doing that anymore.

His 2026 break rate is just 19.4%.

That’s the number.

His return-points-won percentage has fallen to 35.5%, while his dominance ratio is down to 1.09. Those are enormous declines from the standards Djokovic established throughout his career.

But something interesting has happened.

His serve hasn’t disappeared.

Djokovic is still holding at 85.8% this season, almost identical to his career mark of 86.2%. He’s winning 74.2% of his first-serve points, and 67.5% of his service points overall.

The old Djokovic could beat you from everywhere.

The current Djokovic has to be more selective about how he does it.

Crush & Rush News Tennis Betting Hub

Grand Slam Djokovic Is Still Alive

Here’s why I’m not ready to bury him.

Djokovic is 12-3 at Grand Slams in 2026.

He reached the Australian Open final after beating Jannik Sinner in five sets. He reached the Wimbledon semifinals after surviving a five-hour, 15-minute quarterfinal against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Even at the majors, the return numbers aren’t vintage Djokovic. His Grand Slam break rate this year is only 19.1%.

Yet he keeps advancing.

That’s experience. That’s serving well enough. That’s understanding five-set tennis better than almost anybody who has ever played it.

And the US Open field has opened up.

Sinner is out. I’m willing to fade Carlos Alcaraz. After those two, show me the player Djokovic simply cannot beat.

I don’t see him.

Djokovic Is Worth a Sprinkle

Polymarket still gives Djokovic an 11% chance to win the US Open, despite that ugly Cincinnati exit.

I think that’s enough to justify a small futures sprinkle.

But the better opportunity could arrive Thursday.

Once the draw is released, I’ll be looking closely at Djokovic’s path and the prices available for him to reach the quarterfinals and semifinals.

Those markets may fit the player he is now better than an outright ticket.

Djokovic isn’t the suffocating return monster he once was. The 19% break rate makes that clear.

But the champion is still in there.

And until somebody in this field proves Djokovic can’t beat him, I’m not betting as though he’s gone.

We’ll add Djokovic to win the US Open: YES at 12% at Polymarket.

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