Five Men Who Could Win the 2026 National Bank Open

The 2026 National Bank Open in Montreal has suddenly become one of the most intriguing ATP Masters 1000 tournaments of the season.

With Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic all withdrawing, the door is wide open for another player to claim one of the biggest titles of the North American hard-court swing.

The weakened field gives several contenders a legitimate opportunity to capture the National Bank Open trophy and build momentum heading into the US Open.

Here are five players who could win the 2026 National Bank Open.

Ben Shelton Must Defend His Crown

Defending champion Ben Shelton proved last year that he can thrive in Montreal, bulldozing five consecutive seeded opponents to capture his first ATP Masters 1000 title.

Repeating that feat won’t be easy.

Shelton enters Canada with a modest 6-5 Masters 1000 record this season and a 1.01 Dominance Rating, suggesting defending 1,000 ranking points will be a difficult task. Still, few players remaining in the field possess his explosive serve, fearless mentality, and ability to take over matches.

If Shelton rediscovers the form that made him last year’s champion, he’ll once again be one of the most dangerous players in the draw.

Alexander Zverev Is the Tournament Favorite

Alexander Zverev enters Montreal playing arguably the best hard-court tennis of his career.

Fresh off reaching his first Wimbledon final, the German leads all remaining players with 16 hard-court Masters 1000 victories over the past 52 weeks. His 1.23 Dominance Rating is the highest of his career, reflecting a more aggressive style that has flourished since winning Roland Garros.

Zverev also won the National Bank Open in 2017 and arrives with zero ranking points to defend, allowing him to play freely throughout the tournament.

With the three biggest stars absent, Zverev deserves to enter Montreal as the clear tournament favorite.

Felix Auger-Aliassime Could Deliver a Storybook Ending

Few storylines would be bigger than Felix Auger-Aliassime winning Canada’s biggest tennis tournament on home soil.

The Canadian No. 1 has quietly put together an outstanding stretch on hard courts, posting a 14-5 record across his last five Masters 1000 events. The 2025 US Open semifinalist owns a 1.15 Dominance Rating and has won 75 percent of his hard-court matches over the past year.

While his 5-8 career record at his home Masters leaves room for improvement, this version of Auger-Aliassime appears more mature, more confident, and better equipped to make a deep run than ever before.

The Montreal crowd could give him the extra push he needs.

Taylor Fritz Could Be Dangerous If Healthy

Taylor Fritz hasn’t enjoyed the season many expected, but injuries, and not his level of play, have largely been responsible.

Tendinitis disrupted much of his clay-court campaign, yet he still reached multiple grass-court finals and nearly made another major breakthrough before knee problems resurfaced.

Hard courts remain Fritz’s best surface, where he owns a career 1.11 Dominance Rating. His semifinal run at the 2025 National Bank Open demonstrated that his game translates well to Montreal’s conditions.

If he’s healthy entering the tournament, there’s not a player left in the field he can’t beat.

Keep an eye on his results in Washington, particularly the effectiveness of his second serve heading into Canada.

Rafael Jodar Is My Dark Horse

Every Masters 1000 tournament seems to produce one breakout star.

This year, my pick is Rafael Jodar.

The 19-year-old backed up an impressive clay-court season, highlighted by a French Open quarterfinal appearance, with a statement straight-set victory over Arthur Fils at Washington.

He continues to climb the rankings and enters the North American swing with plenty of confidence.

Jodar currently sits No. 23 in the live ATP Rankings and No. 17 in the PIF ATP Race to Turin. Just as importantly, he has no ranking points to defend between Washington and the US Open, allowing him to swing freely throughout the summer.

Don’t be surprised if Montreal becomes the tournament where he announces himself as a legitimate ATP hard court contender.

Final Thoughts

The withdrawals of Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic have transformed the 2026 National Bank Open into one of the most unpredictable ATP Masters 1000 events in recent memory.

Alexander Zverev deserves favorite status. Ben Shelton has already proven he can win in Montreal. Felix Auger-Aliassime has both the game and the home crowd behind him. Taylor Fritz is capable of beating anyone if healthy, while Rafael Jodar has all the ingredients to become this year’s breakout star.

However it unfolds, the race for the National Bank Open title promises to be one of the highlights of the summer hard-court season.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 National Bank Open?

With Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic all out of the tournament, Alexander Zverev enters Montreal as the favorite thanks to his recent form, Masters 1000 success, and previous National Bank Open title.

Who is the defending National Bank Open champion?

Ben Shelton returns to Montreal as the defending champion after capturing his first ATP Masters 1000 title with an impressive run through five seeded opponents.

Where is the 2026 National Bank Open being played?

The men’s tournament is being played in Montreal, Canada, as part of the ATP Masters 1000 series and the North American hard-court swing leading into the US Open.

Phil Naessens

Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.