Sunday night at the Australian Open is where the men’s betting board tightens, and this Australian Open Sunday Night Matches betting preview focuses on how the Round of 16 is being priced rather than how the matchups look on paper.
Jakub Mensik withdrew before his Round of 16 match, sending Novak Djokovic straight through to the quarterfinals without taking the court, giving us only three Australian Open Sunday Night Matches to preview.
Below is a matchup-by-match breakdown of the Sunday night slate, viewed strictly through a betting lens.
Ben Shelton vs. Casper Ruud
The story: A clear clash of styles. Ben Shelton brings pace, emotion, and one of the most dangerous left-handed serves in the draw. Casper Ruud relies on structure, consistency, and heavy topspin from the baseline.
Market read: Shelton is favored at -175 despite trailing the head to head 2–1. The market is clearly weighting surface and serve advantage more than prior meetings.
Betting lens: Shelton’s serve gives him a real edge on these courts, and the odds reflect that. The problem is that the price is already too short to offer much value.
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz
The story: Variety versus power. Lorenzo Musetti thrives when he can disrupt rhythm with touch and spin. Taylor Fritz looks to shorten points with serve plus forehand patterns.
Market read: Fritz sits around -138, signaling a competitive matchup rather than one-way traffic. Reports of minor knee concerns add a bit of public uncertainty.
Betting lens: If Fritz is serving big, he’s in control. If Musetti can drag him into long rallies and make him move, this gets tricky fast.
Luciano Darderi vs. Jannik Sinner
The story: An all-Italian meeting with a clear hierarchy. Jannik Sinner is the defending champion and has controlled nearly every match this tournament. Luciano Darderi is solid, but this represents a significant step up in class.
Market read: Sinner is priced as the heaviest favorite of the round at -6600. The market sees little competitive resistance.
Betting lens: Sinner should win easily, but the odds are too short to bother with. As long as he’s healthy, this one shouldn’t be close.
Final Market Take
Sunday night’s men’s Round of 16 slate features fewer pricing mistakes and more examples of justified favorites with limited upside.
Serve dominance and surface fit explain much of the market confidence, while true underdog value is scarce at this stage.
Understanding where the market is correct is often just as important as finding where it is wrong.
- Acapulco 2026 Entry List: Zverev, Musetti, de Minaur, Shelton Headline
- Why Coco Gauff Loses Matches She Shouldn’t + Australian Open Quarterfinal Podcast
- Ostrava Open 2026 Entry List
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Picks and Predictions
- Montpellier 2026 Entry List (ATP 250 – Open Sud de France)
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
