Men’s Australian Open Betting Preview: Quarter-by-Quarter Draw Breakdown

The men’s singles draw for the Australian Open is out, and it places Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Novak Djokovic at the center of the tournament once again, each anchoring a separate quarter with distinct levels of difficulty on the road to the semifinals.

All three are protected early, but their sections don’t look the same.

Alcaraz’s quarter sets up simply, Djokovic’s is manageable, and Sinner’s is loaded with proven hard-court players.

Read on for our take on the Australian Open men’s draw, beginning Sunday, January 17.

2026 Championship Odds by FanDuel

Player	Odds
Jannik Sinner	-130
Carlos Alcaraz	+160
Novak Djokovic	+1600
Daniil Medvedev	+3000
Alexander Zverev	+3500
Taylor Fritz	+4500
Alex de Minaur	+7000
Alexander Bublik	+7000
Félix Auger-Aliassime	+8000
Ben Shelton	+10000
Andrey Rublev	+10000
Tommy Paul	+10000
Learner Tien	+12500
Lorenzo Musetti	+12500
João Fonseca	+12500
Hubert Hurkacz	+12500
Jiří Lehečka	+17500
Stefanos Tsitsipas	+17500
Grigor Dimitrov	+20000
Karen Khachanov	+20000
Casper Ruud	+20000
Matteo Berrettini	+22500
Jakub Mensik	+25000
Ugo Humbert	+25000

Quarter 1: Alcaraz Chases First Melbourne Crown

Carlos Alcaraz opens the tournament in a quarter that also includes Alex de Minaur, though de Minaur faces a demanding early path.

Alcaraz shouldn’t face a difficult test until at least the fourth round, but de Minaur has a battle on his hands right off the bat.

The Australian draws Matteo Berrettini in the opening round, with potential meetings against Frances Tiafoe and either Flavio Cobolli or Alexander Bublik before even facing Alcaraz.

Quarter 2: Zverev Leads the Most Unsettled Quarter

Alexander Zverev opens the tournament at the top of a quarter that also includes Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, with the three seeds placed on separate lines of the section.

Zverev opens against Gabriel Diallo, with Alexei Popyrin or Alexandre Muller lined up next. Medvedev begins against Jesper de Jong, while Rublev opens his campaign against Matteo Arnaldi.

Elsewhere in the quarter, Cameron Norrie and Francisco Cerúndolo sit on the same side of the draw, with Félix Auger-Aliassime positioned lower in the section. The draw places multiple seeded players in this quarter without locking in a single projected quarterfinal matchup.

Quarter 3: Djokovic Looks to Win Grand Slam No. 25

Ten-time champion Novak Djokovic resides at the bottom of the third quarter, which also includes Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti on the opposite half of the section.

Djokovic opens against Pedro Martínez, with Miami Open champ Jakub Mensik positioned in his portion of the draw as a potential early-round hurdle.

Fritz anchors the top of the quarter and opens against Victor Royer, while Musetti begins against young upstart Raphaël Collignon.

Elsewhere in the quarter, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, and Hubert Hurkacz are all coming from injury-filled seasons, and are dangerous lurkers when fit.

Quarter 4: Sinner Chases Third Consecutive Title

Jannik Sinner opens the tournament at the bottom of the fourth quarter, which also includes Karen Khachanov and João Fonseca on the opposite half of the section.

Sinner opens against Hugo Gaston, with a potential second-round meeting against Dino Prizmic or James Duckworth. Khachanov begins against Alex Michelsen, while Fonseca opens against Eliot Spizzirri.

Elsewhere in the quarter, Sebastián Báez, Cristian Garín, and Luciano Darderi are positioned on the same side of the draw, with multiple unseeded players separating the top seeds until the later rounds.

First-Round Matches to Watch

Several opening-round matchups stand out immediately:

Matteo Berrettini vs. Alex de Minaur
Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby
Tommy Paul vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Tomas Etcheverry
Tristan Schoolkate vs. Corentin Moutet
Frances Tiafoe vs. Jason Kubler
Alexei Popyrin vs. Alexandre Muller
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Andrey Rublev
Quentin Halys vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Fabian Marozsan vs. Arthur Rinderknech
Learner Tien vs. Maros Giron
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Tomas Machac
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Zizou Bergs
Ben Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert
Denis Shapovalov vs. Bu Yunchaokete
Karen Khachanov vs. Alex Michelson
Giovanni Mpetschi-Perricard vs. Sebastian Baez

For Further Reading

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Australian Open 2026 – Men’s Singles

The Australian Open men’s draw once again features a familiar group of elite contenders, along with several players positioned to challenge deep into the tournament. Our coverage focuses on realistic title paths, matchup dynamics, and how the betting market is pricing the top of the field.

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Phil Naessens

Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.