How to bet on the favorites is what this Australian Open 2026 favorites betting analysis is all about.
Melbourne rewards first-strike tennis, reliable serving in the heat, and the ability to manage momentum swings in best-of-three matches.
On the women’s side, pricing errors tend to come from reputation lag, health uncertainty, and bettors underestimating how quickly matches can flip when conditions get hot and pressure builds.
This Australian Open 2026 favorites betting analysis focuses on how the top women actually win in Melbourne and where betting value appears when prices drift away from surface reality.
🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka
Defending Australian Open champion Madison Keys was the only woman to defeat Aryna Sabalenka at a hard-court Grand Slam in 2025.
Melbourne remains the one Slam where her power game is consistently rewarded, with conditions that favor first-strike tennis and short points rather than extended rallies.
I would bet Sabalenka to win outright at +200, and given her 68.5% Under rate when favored, I would also target individual match Unders throughout the early rounds.
🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek’s price is driven more by overall dominance than Melbourne-specific results.
Her return game still creates advantages, but the Australian Open courts expose her to elite power hitters more than the other Slams.
From a betting standpoint, early-round Unders and wagers on reaching the quarterfinals or semifinals are preferable to chasing championship odds.
🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina
When healthy, Elena Rybakina remains one of the cleanest fits in Melbourne.
Her serve and flat groundstrokes cut through these courts, and her calm temperament allows her to win matches efficiently without emotional drain or unnecessary extensions.
From a betting standpoint, backing Rybakina to win the Australian Open outright is a reasonable position, and it is likely the only pre-tournament wager worth making on her.
🇺🇸 Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff’s movement and return game make her a consistent presence in the second week, but Melbourne remains a demanding test for her forehand under sustained pace.
She often survives matches with her return game rather than imposing her will, particularly when opponents can consistently pressure that wing.
From a betting standpoint, I typically refrain from backing Gauff unless she is priced as an underdog. In those spots, the Under has cashed roughly 60% of the time over her career.
🇺🇸 Amanda Anisimova
Amanda Anisimova can flatten out anyone on this surface when the timing is right, and Melbourne rewards her ability to take the ball early.
She went 16–4 at the Slams last season, including a 7–2 record at the hard-court majors, and owns the kind of first-strike game that can hurt seeded players before the draw settles.
From a betting standpoint, I like Unders when Anisimova is favored, as well as markets like winning her quarter or reaching the semifinals, where her volatility works more in your favor than short match prices.
🇷🇺 Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva brings fearless shot selection and advanced court sense for her age, traits that often play up in chaotic Australian Open matches.
She is rarely intimidated by names or stages and recorded wins in 2025 against Sabalenka, Rybakina twice, and Swiatek twice.
From a betting standpoint, match Unders are the preferred angle, as Andreeva’s matches have gone Under the total in 58% of her career contests.
🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka
Naomi Osaka’s pedigree and serving still demand respect in Melbourne, where she has previously solved these conditions better than almost anyone.
Her power game and first serve allow her to control points quickly when she is locked in, and that profile has always translated well at the Australian Open.
From a betting standpoint, the approach is clear: target match total Unders and 2–0 set scores when Osaka is favored.
🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula’s consistency keeps her relevant in Australia, but she has never advanced past the quarterfinals in Melbourne.
Her game is better suited to day matches rather than the often slower, cooler night conditions, which tend to blunt her strengths.
I do not bet on Pegula matches. Sorry.
For Further Reading
- Which Women Can Actually Win the 2026 Australian Open?
- 2026 Australian Open Women’s Singles Championship Odds
- American Firepower Headlines 2026 Australian Open Women’s Entry List
- 10 Biggest Australian Open Betting Upsets
- https://www.crushrushnews.com/2025/12/11/best-wta-top-10-players-to-bet-on-who-makes-money-for-bettors-and-who-burns-it/
- Naomi Osaka’s Return: What’s Real, What’s Still Missing
Phil Naessens is a former tennis academy owner and longtime resident professional who has coached and evaluated players across the United States and Europe. He has worked in tennis hubs including Las Vegas, Mykonos, Dubai, and Corfu, bringing decades of first-hand experience in player development, match dynamics, and competitive readiness. His analysis focuses on on-court mechanics, physical signals, and betting market inefficiencies, with an emphasis on process and responsible wagering rather than hype or prediction.
