The biggest betting upsets on the WTA Tour in 2025 were not random shocks.
They were the result of mispriced expectations, where rankings and reputation mattered more than form, surface, and matchup.
This article is part of our ongoing Australian Open 2026 coverage.
Read on for the ten biggest betting upsets on the WTA Tour in 2025.
| Rank | Date | Match | Tournament | Round | Odds | $100 Pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 15 | 🇩🇪 Laura Siegemund def. 🇨🇳 Qinwen Zheng | Australian Open | 2R | +1391 | $1,391 |
| 2 | Jul 23 | 🇺🇸 Venus Williams def. 🇺🇸 Peyton Stearns | Citi Open | 1R | +1109 | $1,109 |
| 3 | Jan 14 | 🇲🇪 Danka Kovinić def. 🇳🇿 Lulu Sun | Australian Open | 1R | +1050 | $1,050 |
| 4 | Sep 8 | 🇺🇸 Victoria Rodriguez def. 🇦🇺 Ajla Tomljanović | SP Open | 1R | +1000 | $1,000 |
| 5 | May 27 | 🇺🇸 Alycia Parks def. 🇨🇿 Karolína Muchová | French Open | 1R | +1000 | $1,000 |
| 6 | Oct 28 | 🇭🇰 Eudice Chong def. 🇳🇱 Suzan Lamens | Hong Kong Open | 1R | +1000 | $1,000 |
| 7 | Mar 23 | 🇵🇭 Alexandra Eala def. 🇺🇸 Madison Keys | Miami Open | 3R | +961 | $961 |
| 8 | Jul 1 | 🇮🇹 Elisabetta Cocciaretto def. 🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula | Wimbledon | 1R | +900 | $900 |
| 9 | Jun 13 | 🇩🇪 Tatjana Maria def. 🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina | Queen’s Club | QF | +900 | $900 |
| 10 | Mar 26 | 🇵🇭 Alexandra Eala def. 🇵🇱 Iga Świątek | Miami Open | QF | +900 | $900 |
The 10 Biggest Betting Upsets on the WTA Tour in 2025
🥇 Laura Siegemund def. Qinwen Zheng (+1391)
A Top-5 player at a Grand Slam and still massively mispriced. The market leaned heavily on ranking and recent results while ignoring Laura Siegemund’s and Qinwen Zheng’s discomfort against players who take pace away. This was not chaos. It was a pricing error on the biggest stage.
🥈 Venus Williams def. Peyton Stearns (+1109)
Sportsbooks priced Venus Williams as a ceremonial participant rather than a competitor against rising star Peyton Stearns. Bettors like myself who took a stab at Venus beating Stearns were rewarded with one of the largest payouts of the season.
🥉 Danka Kovinić def. Lulu Sun (+1050)
Early-round Grand Slam volatility at its purest. Rankings distorted expectations, but pressure and experience told a different story. Danka Kovinić had nothing to lose and played freely while heavily favored and horrendously over-hyped Lulu Sun crumbled like a cookie in straight sets.
No. 4 Victoria Rodriguez def. Ajla Tomljanović (+1000)
A classic example of the market overvaluing name recognition. Ajla Tomljanović famously beat Serena Williams at the US Open, and the over-pricing has continued. Victoria Rodriguez forced a third-set retirement and pulled off the WTA Tour’s 4th-biggest upset of the year.
No. 5 Alycia Parks def. Karolína Muchová (+1000)
Alycia Parks’ power makes her dangerous in any best-of-three match, especially early in Slams. She was up against it as Karolina Muchová’s skill set is elite, but she wasn’t up to the task as Parks and her big serve pulled off a first-round three-set upset at Roland Garros.
No. 6 Eudice Chong def. Suzan Lamens (+1000)
A solid H2H history is essential. Eudice Chong entered with one win under her belt against Suzan Lamens and beat Lamens in straight sets to improve to 2-1 lifetime over the Dutch tennis ace.
No. 7 Alexandra Eala def. Madison Keys (+961)
This was the first shock that announced Alexandra Eala to the betting world. It also fueled an endless hype machine, but she usurped the No. 5-ranked Madison Keys in straight sets at the Miami Open.
No. 8 Elisabetta Cocciaretto def. Jessica Pegula (+900)
Early-round Slam pricing strikes again. Jessica Pegula’s consistency was baked into the number, while Elisabetta Cocciaretto’s relentless attack and comfort on grass were discounted. Bettors who trust surface context cashed.
No. 9 Tatjana Maria def. Elena Rybakina (+900)
Grass rewards variety, not just power. The market overpriced Elena Rybakina’s serve and baseline dominance. Still, Tatjana Maria’s slices, touch, and tactical discipline completely changed the match’s rhythm and gave her a quarterfinal upset at the Queens Club.
No. 10 Alexandra Eala def. Iga Świątek (+900)
The second Miami shock turned heads everywhere. Beating Iga Swiatek at these odds fueled the Eala hype and forced a major market reassessment. The win was real, but it also became a textbook example of how one hot run can drive future overpricing.
