Which Women Can Actually Win the 2026 Australian Open — 2026 Australian Open Women’s Contenders!

The 2026 Australian Open is shaping up to be a wild ride on the women’s side, but not everyone in the draw has a real shot at the trophy.

We’ve crunched the numbers and looked at current form, and here’s the truth: only a handful of players can realistically win in Melbourne.

This is your guide to the women who can actually lift the trophy, plus the sleepers and dangerous floaters to watch.

Below the table, we break down the 2026 Australian Open women’s contenders.

Our color key makes it easy:

🟩 High (≥ 70%) — Elite, real-deal contenders
🟨 Mid (50–69.9%) — Dangerous floaters who need the right draw
🟥 Low (<50%) — Talented, but not reliable enough in big-match situations

Player	Total W-L	Win % 🏆	Vs Top 20 🌍	Win % 🏆	Vs Top 10 🌟	Win % 🏆
Aryna Sabalenka	85-18	82.5 🟩	25-10	71.4 🟩	12-5	70.6 🟩
Coco Gauff	78-22	78.0 🟩	18-12	60.0 🟨	8-6	57.1 🟨
Iga Świątek	80-25	76.2 🟩	22-14	61.1 🟨	10-7	58.8 🟨
Elena Rybakina	70-30	70.0 🟩	15-12	55.6 🟨	6-5	54.5 🟨
Amanda Anisimova	60-28	68.2 🟨	12-10	54.5 🟨	5-6	45.5 🟥
Jessica Pegula	65-32	67.7 🟨	14-13	51.9 🟨	4-5	44.4 🟥
Mirra Andreeva	48-28	63.2 🟨	10-12	45.5 🟥	3-5	37.5 🟥
Jasmine Paolini	50-30	62.5 🟨	8-11	42.1 🟥	2-5	28.6 🟥

Player Capsules — What to Watch in Melbourne

🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka Isn’t Just the Favorite — She’s the Benchmark

Aryna Sabalenka’s numbers aren’t just impressive; they’re elite.

An 82.5% overall win rate, combined with 71.4% vs Top 20 and over 70% vs Top 10, makes her the clearest statistical 2026 Australian Open women’s contenders for the 2026 Australian Open.

Her “high–high–high” sweep of the model explains why she’s the bookies’ favorite. If she’s healthy and in form, she sets the bar for every other contender.

🇺🇸 Coco Gauff: The Youthful Challenger With Real Upside

Coco Gauff has the kind of athleticism and all-around game that can challenge anyone in Melbourne.

With a 78% overall win rate, 60% vs Top 20, and 57% vs Top 10, she’s dangerous in the right conditions.

The key question: her service woes and inconsistent forehand have led to some painful losses to Top 10 players. She fixes those, and she’s a real contender.

🇵🇱 Iga Świątek: Consistency Meets Slam Experience

Iga Świątek’s versatility and mental toughness make her a serious contender.

She sits at 76.2% overall, 61.1% vs. the Top 20, and 58.8% vs the Top 10.

While her hard-court record isn’t as dominant as clay, her ability to vary pace, mix slices and drop shots is why she can grind through tough draws and reach the final stages.

🇰🇿 Elena Rybakina: Explosive Power Can Overwhelm Anyone

Elena Rybakina has the weaponry that’s tailor-made for Melbourne.

Her 70% overall win rate, 55.6% vs Top 20, and 54.5% vs Top 10 show she can compete at the highest level when locked in.

Her big serve and flat, aggressive hitting make her a threat to topple top seeds in a hurry, but she’s temperamental and sometimes goes away easily.

🇺🇸 Amanda Anisimova: Aggressive Talent With Slam Upside

Amanda Anisimova is the kind of aggressive baseliner who can blow past opponents when she’s confident, and get blown away when she isn’t.

With a 68.2% overall win rate, 54.5% vs Top 20, and 45.5% vs Top 10, she sits in the “dangerous floater” capable of making a deep run if she keeps her composure and the forehand and serve are flying.

Her heavy forehand and two Grand Slam finals appearances in 2025 makes Anisimova one of the serious 2026 Australian Open women’s contenders.

🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula: Reliable and Steady, But Not Overpowering

Jessica Pegula’s 67.7% overall win rate and solid record vs Top 20 (51.9%) make her a dependable presence.

Her strength lies in consistency and the ability to grind down opponents, but she rarely dominates top-tier players outright.

She’s a contender for the second week, but winning the Australian Open will require all the stars in Melbourne to align.

🇵🇱 Mirra Andreeva: Young Firepower With High Upside

Mirra Andreeva is versatile and athletic, with a 63.2% overall win rate.

Her record vs Top 20 and Top 10 (45.5% and 37.5%) puts her in the “high-risk, high-reward” category.

If she can handle the heat and the two-week grind and manage pressure, she could make a breakthrough deep run.

🇮🇹 Jasmine Paolini: Crafty Disruptor With Potential

Jasmine Paolini’s 62.5% overall win rate and ability to disrupt higher seeds with crafty shots make her dangerous if the draw is favorable.

Her Top 20 and Top 10 records (42.1% and 28.6%) suggest she’s more of a spoiler than a favorite, but her clever shot-making and Grand Slam finalist pedigree could make noise in Melbourne.

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