BMW Open ATP 500 Preview: All Roads Lead Through Shelton
Jan Lennard-Struff is set to defend his 2024 BMW Open title when the tournament begins on Monday.
No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev, No. 2 Ben Shelton, and No. 3 Felix Auger-Aliassime might have other ideas for the defending champ.
Join me as I break it down with a prediction for the 2025 BMW Open, beginning Monday, April 14.
BMW Open Main Draw
Past BMW Open Champions in the Main Draw
Jan Lennard-Struff (2024)
Alexander Zverev (2017, 2018)
Zverev Riding the Struggle Bus
No.1 seed Alexander Zverev hasn’t gone past the quarterfinals anywhere since his run to the 2025 Australian Open. Still, he is one of the best players in the world in a hard quarter. Tough opener against Alexandre Muller. If he advances, he could meet compatriot Daniel Altmaier. Then, either Learner Tien or Jakub Mensic in the quarters.
Shelton Looking for Success on the Dirt
No. 2 seed Ben Shelton has one clay court title to his name, a three-match losing streak, and is in a tough quarter. His opener against Borna Gojo should be a “go”, but then it gets interesting. Shelton could smirk his way through his second-rounder, but a potential quarterfinal matchup with either Jiri Lehecka or Luciano Darderi could end his run in Munich.
Don’t Sleep on These BMW Open Dark Horses
Zizou Bergs is slowly on the rise and could make a deep BMW Open run with a bit of luck. He opens with qualifier Alexander Bublik. If he advances, he could meet either Gael Monfils or Denis Shapovalov. Winning that match would get him a potential date with struggling Ugo Humbert and a potential semi with Zverev.
Francisco Cerundolo is another who could make a deep BMW Open run. He’s 9-4 on the dirt this season and if he can get past his opening round matchup with defending champ Jan Lennard-Struff, he’s got a real shot at reaching at least the semis. He’ll have to get past a banged-up Flavio Cobolli and Felix Auger-Aliassime to do it, but the results have been consistent enough to believe he can reach the latter stages in Munich.
I don’t think Auger-Aliassime will advance past Cerundolo, but he has the game to. He was rolling in the Arab Emirates but has cooled off considerably. He’s lost four of five overall and coming off a less-than encouraging opening round loss to Altmaier in Monte Carlo.
Miomir Kecmanovic is someone who could make a deep run in the bottom section. He’ll open with Marcus Giron and if he advances plus he has a winning record against Jiri Lehecka (1-0) and Luciano Darderi (1-0).
Defending champ Lennard-Struff could find lightning in a bottle, but he’s on a seven-match losing streak with a nightmare of an opening rounder with Cerundolo.
2025 BMW Open Prediction
Six months ago, I would have told you to forget about betting on a BMW Open outright winner.
Zverev would be an overwhelming favorite, but the juice wouldn’t be worth the squeeze. The German No. 1 has struggled since his run to the Australian Open finale, and I don’t think he’s a good bet to win the BMW Open.
It’s not because he doesn’t have the goods to win in Munich; when he’s playing well, he has all he needs to run right through the field and hoist his third BMW Open trophy. He used to be a semifinal fixture, but he’s missed the semis in six consecutive events since Melbourne.
I think the winner of this event will come from the bottom half of the draw. Shelton being the No. 2 seed should tell you all you need to know about this section. He’s not a good clay court player but his serve makes him formidable on any surface, but he’s up against some experienced clay courters who would love a shot at Zverev.
Those players would be Cerundolo and more than likely Darderi. That would be a terrific semifinal, with the winner likely meet either Zverev orr my darkhorse Bergs. Cerundolo has come close to hoisting one, and I like his chances of winning the BMW Open.
Prediction: Francisco Cerundolo
