Tuesday night’s Australian Open Men’s quarterfinals feature World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz against home favorite Alex de Minaur, with Alexander Zverev also in action against rising American Learner Tien.
Favorites have continued to dominate this event, and we have two favorites tonight with better than 2:1 odds against opponents who are both chasing their first career Grand Slam semifinal.
Buckle up for our Australian Open men’s quarterfinals preview.
Alexander Zverev vs. Learner Tien
Head-to-head: 1-1
How they arrived here
Alexander Zverev is a three-time Australian Open semifinalist and arrives with the kind of experience that usually shows up deep in majors. He has dropped sets along the way, but that is typical for a big hitter who plays aggressively behind his serve.
That serve has looked strong throughout the tournament, and the expected heat pushing this match indoors should only help him.
For Learner Tien, this has been a breakout run. The 20-year-old has shown maturity in tight moments and a willingness to grind through long rallies. He is consistent, moves well, and does not shy away from physical exchanges.
That competitive edge has already paid off. Tien owns a 3–3 career record against top-ten players, including a win over Zverev earlier in his career.
What to expect on court
Zverev’s serve is the main separator. When his first serve is landing indoors, points stay short and pressure builds quickly on the returner.
Tien is a capable returner and competes hard from the baseline, but his second serve has been vulnerable at times against elite returners. Zverev fits squarely into that category and is one of the better returners on tour when locked in.
Betting angle
The moneyline on Zverev leaves little margin for bettors. From a betting perspective, match length is the more interesting angle. Tien has a track record of bothering big hitters and has already shown he can beat top-ten players.
If he brings the same level he showed against Daniil Medvedev, this match has the potential to stretch well beyond expectations. The total games market, including numbers like 37.5 at FanDuel, deserves attention.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head: Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 5-0
How they arrived here
Carlos Alcaraz has faced resistance but handled pressure well. He has spent more time on court than some of the other top seeds, yet his ability to raise his level late in sets has kept him moving forward. Physically, he appears sound, though not untouched.
Alex de Minaur comes in battle-tested and backed by the home crowd. His speed, defense, and ability to extend points have worn opponents down throughout the tournament. De Minaur hasn’t cruised, but he’s been relentless from start to finish.
What to expect on court
This match is about defense. Both are tremendous defenders, turning what should be quick points into long rallies.
Alcaraz loves to finish with a flourish, but against de Minaur, rallies tend to stretch whether he wants them to or not.
Even when Alcaraz is in control, the scoreboard often moves slowly.
Betting angle
This match is really about how well Alex de Minaur handles his nerves.
Tuesday night is a big moment for him, with a chance to beat Carlos Alcaraz and become the first Australian since Mark Edmondson in 1978 to win the Australian Open in Melbourne.
The challenge for de Minaur is that he lacks the weapons to consistently beat top-ten players in matches of this magnitude.
He is 18–45 against the top 10 in his career, and now faces a 22-year-old future Hall of Famer chasing history as the youngest player to win all four Grand Slam titles.
Alcaraz has been tested at times, but he has moved through this event without dropping a set. He enters with a 5–0 head-to-head edge and has the kind of shotmaking that can quickly turn the crowd in his favor.
For bettors, the game total markets are worth a closer look.
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Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
