Sunday night at the Australian Open is where pricing discipline becomes critical, and this Australian Open Sunday Night Matches betting preview focuses on how the women’s Round of 16 is being priced rather than how it looks on paper.
Public narratives, recent form, and reputation begin to distort the market at this stage, while head-to-head history, first-strike ability, and surface-specific power profiles quietly do the real work.
Below is a matchup-by-match breakdown of the Sunday night slate, viewed strictly through a betting lens.
Jessica Pegula vs. Madison Keys
The story: Two American veterans collide in conditions that reward aggressive shot-making. Jessica Pegula is among the tour’s most consistent returners, while Madison Keys thrives when she can dictate with pace.
Market read: Pegula is favored at -175, but Keys leads the head-to-head 2–1 and won their most recent meeting in Australia. Keys also carries a 10-match Australian Open win streak into this matchup.
Betting lens: The market leans toward Pegula, but Keys’ ability to hit through the court in Melbourne gives her a matchup edge that the price does not fully reflect.
Elena Rybakina vs. Elise Mertens
The story: Power versus resistance. Elena Rybakina applies constant pressure with a heavy serve and flat groundstrokes, while Elise Mertens relies on defense and rally tolerance.
Market read: Rybakina leads the head-to-head 6–1, and the odds reflect that history. Mertens has repeatedly struggled to neutralize Rybakina’s serve.
Betting lens: This is a clean matchup advantage supported by both current form and history. The market’s confidence aligns with how these styles compete on hard courts.
Iga Swiatek vs. Maddison Inglis
The story: A local wildcard enjoying a breakout run faces one of the most relentless competitors in the women’s game. Maddison Inglis will have the crowd, but Iga Swiatek controls matches through depth, movement, and pressure.
Market read: This is the most lopsided matchup of the round, and the odds reflect a significant class gap.
Betting lens: The market has this right, but the odds leave no room to bet it. Crowd support is not enough to bridge the gap between these two players.
Xinyu Wang vs. Amanda Anisimova
The story: Xinyu Wang is a clean striker who needs time. Amanda Anisimova has played aggressive, early-contact tennis throughout the tournament.
Market read: Anisimova is favored at -600 after dropping very few games in earlier rounds. Her first-strike patterns have consistently taken time away from opponents.
Betting lens: The matchup clearly favors Anisimova, but the market has already fully adjusted to her current form.
Final Market Take
Sunday night’s women’s Round of 16 slate offers fewer mispriced opportunities and more examples of justified favorites with limited upside. Understanding why the market is confident is more important than forcing action at short prices.
Patience remains the edge.
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Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
