The five hottest starts heading into the Australian Open do not guarantee deep runs, but they often reveal habits that matter once the heat, pressure, and recovery demands kick in.
The Australian Open has a way of stripping away false positives early, especially when conditions stop cooperating.
Still, how players arrive in Melbourne can tell you who is organized, who is confident, and who understands what January requires.
These five players enter the Australian Open unbeaten.
That does not mean they are destined for deep runs, but it does make them worth watching closely once the tournament starts asking harder questions.
🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev (5–0)
Daniil Medvedev is a riddle.
The 29-year-old Russian bitched and moaned his way through a miserable 2025 campaign, yet still managed to drop just one set on his way to his 28th ATP Tour title. That contradiction has defined his career as much as his flat groundstrokes.
His Brisbane International title was no fluke. Medvedev had already begun shaking off a year-long funk late in 2025 with semifinal runs in Beijing and Shanghai, followed by a title at the Almaty Open. A round-of-16 showing at the Paris Masters confirmed the upward trend.
Now heading into his tenth Australian Open, Medvedev appears to be playing his best tennis in quite some time. He is a three-time finalist in Melbourne, yet priced at 33/1 to finally lift the trophy.
If anyone outside the inner circle can knock off Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic in this environment, it is Medvedev, maddening, defiant, and still uniquely equipped for five sets in Melbourne.
🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka (5–0)
We do not like using sports betting touts terms like “lock” around here, but Aryna Sabalenka reaching the finals and winning tournaments has become close to a certainty.
The 27-year-old Belarusian has been dominant, and that dominance was on full display in Brisbane, where she won the title without dropping a set or facing a single break of serve.
Arriving in Melbourne red hot has to feel especially meaningful after missing the chance last year to become just the fifth woman to win three consecutive Australian Open titles.
Sabalenka has now won 20 of her last 21 matches at Melbourne Park, and at 2/1 she remains a very strong bet to lift the trophy later this month.
Read on for the five hottest starts heading into the Australian Open.
🇨🇭 Belinda Bencic (5–0)
Belinda Bencic began her season with a bang, winning five straight United Cup matches, including a gritty three-set victory over Iga Swiatek.
Her United Cup success does not feel accidental. Bencic won two hard-court titles in 2025 at Abu Dhabi and Tokyo, and she posted a respectable 5–8 record against top-10 opponents over the past 52 weeks.
She also owns a strong career record in Melbourne at 29–11.
Currently priced at 80/1 to win her first major, Bencic may finally have a path forward if her seeding helps her avoid the kind of early matchup that has repeatedly stalled her at the Round of 16 stage.
🇺🇦 Elina Svitolina (5–0)
Elina Svitolina dropped just one set on her way to a 5–0 start and the Auckland WTA 250 title.
She is looking to rebound from an injury-filled 2025 season in which she went 15–10 on hard courts, including a strong quarterfinal run in Melbourne that ended against Madison Keys.
Svitolina has reached the Australian Open quarterfinals three times and owns a 29–12 career record at Melbourne Park.
Despite the fast start, she is priced at 60/1 to win the Australian Open. The market has not reacted to her Auckland title, and it probably should not. That restraint makes sense.
🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik (4–0)
Alexander Bublik’s opening-season Hong Kong title catapulted the big-serving 28-year-old into the ATP top 10 for the first time in his career.
Bublik racked up titles on all three main surfaces in 2025, including a 6–6 mark against the top 10, highlighted by a three-set grass-court victory at Halle over Wimbledon champion Jannik Sinner.
Currently priced at 100/1 to win the Australian Open, Bublik has never fared particularly well at Melbourne Park. Despite the hot start, this is one early-season surge I am fading as a pre-tournament winner.
For Further Reading
Phil Naessens is a former tennis academy owner and longtime resident professional who has coached and evaluated players across the United States and Europe. He has worked in tennis hubs including Las Vegas, Mykonos, Dubai, and Corfu, bringing decades of first-hand experience in player development, match dynamics, and competitive readiness. His analysis focuses on on-court mechanics, physical signals, and betting market inefficiencies, with an emphasis on process and responsible wagering rather than hype or prediction.
