How to bet on the favorites is what this Australian Open 2026 favorites betting analysis is all about.
Melbourne rewards elite baseline tolerance, reliable serving in extreme heat, and the ability to close without drama in best-of-five tennis.
This Australian Open 2026 favorites betting analysis focuses on proven Grand Slam winners, hardened hard-court grinders, and volatile power players who can create early-round betting opportunities when priced correctly.
Rather than chasing hype or long-shot narratives, this breakdown focuses on how each favorite actually wins in Melbourne and where the most reliable betting angles tend to appear.
How to Bet the Top Men in Melbourne
🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner
AO record: 22–4
Best finish: Champion (2024, 2025)
Why Melbourne fits
- Elite baseline tolerance in heat
- Reliable serving shortens matches
- Closes cleanly without getting dragged
How to bet / what to look for
- Unders & straight sets when favored
- Futures only at fair numbers (plus-money)
- An early-round Under machine in best-of-five
🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz
AO record: 11–3
Best finish: Quarterfinals (2024, 2025)
Why Melbourne fits
- Athletic enough for five sets
- Can overpower anyone when fully locked in
How to bet / what to look for
- Known to sleepwalk early, plus a new team dynamic
- Target early-round Overs or 3–1 set scores
🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic
AO record: 94–9
Best finish: Champion (10×)
Why Melbourne fits
- Knows these courts better than anyone
- Return game can still control matches
How to bet / what to look for
- Plus-money spots matter most
- Look for value on quarters or semis rather than short outrights
🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev
AO record: 20–8
Best finish: Finalist (2021, 2022, 2024)
Why Melbourne fits
- Thrives in extended baseline exchanges
- Comfortable grinding in heat
How to bet / what to look for
- Overs and long matches
- Set spreads over moneylines
- Worth a look to win his quarter (3–0 lifetime when reaching the QFs)
🇺🇸 Ben Shelton
AO record: 6–3
Best finish: Quarterfinals (2025)
Why Melbourne fits
- Big serve plays anywhere
- Energy carries him through early rounds
How to bet / what to look for
- Monitor break-rate in his ABS Classic tune-up
- If near 25%, sprinkle a long-shot outright
- Overs remain the best way to bet Big Bennie
🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik
AO record: 6–6
Best finish: Fourth Round (2023)
Why Melbourne fits
- Serve keeps him competitive
- Unpredictable by nature
How to bet / what to look for
- Avoid pre-match bets
- He has openly admitted he’ll disengage if motivation disappears
🇨🇦 Felix Auger-Aliassime
AO record: 8–6
Best finish: Quarterfinals (2022)
Why Melbourne fits
- Big serve helps in heat
- Athletic enough for extended matches
How to bet / what to look for
- Underdog only
- Pass entirely when priced as a favorite
🇬🇷 Stefanos Tsitsipas
AO record: 15–7
Best finish: Finalist (2023)
Why Melbourne fits
- Forehand still does damage
- Feeds off crowd energy
How to bet / what to look for
- Early-round short prices are playable
- Finally looks healthy for the first time in two years
🇨🇦 Gabriel Diallo
AO record: 0–1
Best finish: First Round (2025)
Why Melbourne fits
- Big serve keeps him competitive
- Matches rarely end quickly
How to bet / what to look for
- Nine of his 12 Slam main-draw matches went 4+ sets
- Look to the Over
- Live underdog opportunities early in the draw
🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz
AO record: 14–7
Best finish: Quarterfinals (2024)
Why Melbourne fits
- Serve holds up in heat
- Comfortable in longer matches
How to bet / what to look for
- Target 3–1 set scores
- Can stall when closing, creating value away from moneylines
🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev
AO record: 25–8
Best finish: Semifinals (2020, 2024)
Why Melbourne fits
- Big serve buys time
- Physically imposing
How to bet / what to look for
- Coming off a rough year, but quarter-winner markets remain attractive
- Career 9–6 record when reaching the last eight in Melbourne
For further reading
For deeper Australian Open betting analysis and player-specific breakdowns:
- Which Men Can Actually Win the 2026 Australian Open?
- Australian Open 2026: Contenders, Entry Lists, Odds & Betting Analysis
- 2026 Australian Open Men’s Singles Championship Odds
- ATP Rising Stars and Breakthrough Players in 2026
- Five ATP Players who Underachieved in 2025
- The Bettor Angle: Five Early Round Grand Slam Under Prospects.
- 2025 Australian Open: 10 Biggest Men’s Upsets
Phil Naessens is a former tennis academy owner and longtime resident professional who has coached and evaluated players across the United States and Europe. He has worked in tennis hubs including Las Vegas, Mykonos, Dubai, and Corfu, bringing decades of first-hand experience in player development, match dynamics, and competitive readiness. His analysis focuses on on-court mechanics, physical signals, and betting market inefficiencies, with an emphasis on process and responsible wagering rather than hype or prediction.
