The women’s singles betting upsets at the 2025 Australian Open once again reminded bettors that reputation and reality are not the same thing.
Despite heavy prices on elite names, the women’s singles draw produced a series of massive results-driven shocks, reinforcing how women’s singles betting upsets at the Australian Open are often fueled by inflated odds, early-round volatility, and the market’s ongoing struggle to price form, momentum, and matchup nuance accurately.
What follows are the 10 biggest betting upsets of the tournament, ranked by odds, and a clear illustration of why short-priced favorites remain one of the most dangerous traps in Grand Slam betting.
10 Biggest Women’s Singles Betting Upsets at the 2025 Australian Open
| Rank | Winner | Loser | Round | Winner (US) | Loser (US) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇩🇪 Laura Siegemund | 🇨🇳 Qinwen Zheng | 2nd Round | +1060 | -2500 |
| 2 | 🇲🇪 Danka Kovinic | 🇳🇿 Lulu Sun | 1st Round | +877 | -1667 |
| 3 | 🇺🇸 Madison Keys | 🇵🇱 Iga Swiatek | Semifinals | +399 | -556 |
| 4 | 🇷🇸 Olga Danilovic | 🇺🇸 Jessica Pegula | 3rd Round | +391 | -556 |
| 5 | 🇺🇸 Madison Keys | 🇧🇾 Aryna Sabalenka | Final | +295 | -385 |
| 6 | 🇪🇸 Paula Badosa | 🇺🇸 Coco Gauff | Quarterfinals | +275 | -357 |
| 7 | 🇮🇹 Lucia Bronzetti | 🇧🇾 Victoria Azarenka | 1st Round | +259 | -345 |
| 8 | 🇷🇸 Olga Danilovic | 🇷🇺 Liudmila Samsonova | 2nd Round | +217 | -286 |
| 9 | 🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka | 🇨🇿 Karolina Muchova | 2nd Round | +216 | -278 |
| 10 | 🇨🇳 Shuai Zhang | 🇺🇸 McCartney Kessler | 1st Round | +216 | -278 |
10 Biggest Women’s Singles Betting Upsets at the 2025 Australian Open
1. Laura Siegemund def. Qinwen Zheng (7-6, 6-3)
In the tournament’s most shocking result, veteran Laura Siegemund controlled the match against No. 5 seed and 2024 finalist Qinwen Zheng, using variety and timing to neutralize Zheng’s power in straight sets.
2. Danka Kovinic def. Lulu Sun (6-3, 7-5)
Danka Kovinic broke early in the opening set and successfully suppressed Lulu Sun’s aggressive baseline game, never allowing the match to fully turn into a rhythm contest.
3. Madison Keys def. Iga Swiatek (5-7, 6-1, 7-6)
After narrowly losing the first set, Madison Keys unleashed her peak power tennis, blowing through the second set before edging a tense deciding tiebreak against Iga Swiatek.
4. Olga Danilovic def. Jessica Pegula (7-6, 6-1)
Serbian qualifier Olga Danilovic found another gear with her left-handed groundstrokes, while Jessica Pegula’s trademark consistency began to waver as the match wore on.
5. Madison Keys def. Aryna Sabalenka (6-3, 2-6, 7-6)
Keys struck first with aggressive ball-striking, Aryna Sabalenka roared back to force a decider, and the match ultimately hinged on a high-octane final-set tiebreak that Keys managed to survive.
6. Paula Badosa def. Coco Gauff (7-5, 6-4)
Paula Badosa’s steady serving and heavy pace, particularly into Coco Gauff’s backhand wing, kept the American on the defensive for much of the contest.
7. Lucia Bronzetti def. Victoria Azarenka (6-2, 7-6)
Lucia Bronzetti stunned Victoria Azarenka with a blistering start, racing through the first set before holding firm in a second-set tiebreak to seal the biggest win of her career against the former world No. 1.
8. Olga Danilovic def. Liudmila Samsonova (6-1, 6-2)
Danilovic needed just over an hour to dismantle Liudmila Samsonova, overwhelming the hard hitter with early pace and consistent left-handed pressure.
9. Naomi Osaka def. Karolina Muchova (1-6, 6-0, 6-3)
After a slow start, Naomi Osaka flipped the match completely, bageling Karolina Muchova in the second set before her serve and first-strike tennis carried her through the third.
10. Shuai Zhang def. McCartney Kessler (6-3, 6-4)
Veteran Shuai Zhang’s flat, accurate ball-striking neutralized McCartney Kessler’s athleticism, allowing Zhang to dictate play from the center of the court.
🔗 Further Reading & Context
For results-based insight into how WTA favorites, underdogs, and pricing trends perform over time, visit our WTA Tour Tennis Betting Stats hub.
For a broader tournament context, including entry lists, odds, and historical betting trends at Melbourne Park, see our Australian Open 2026: Contenders, Entry Lists, Odds & Betting Analysis hub.
