The 10 Biggest Betting Upsets at the 2025 Australian Open (Men’s Singles)

The 2025 Australian Open men’s betting upsets delivered a harsh reminder that reputation does not cash tickets in men’s Grand Slam tennis.

From early-round surface mismatches to late-stage collapses by established contenders, this year’s tournament consistently punished markets that priced name value over matchup reality.

This breakdown ranks the 10 biggest betting upsets at the 2025 Australian Open (men’s singles) using closing odds, match context, and full best-of-five dynamics — not shock value or hindsight narratives.

This article is part of our ongoing Australian Open 2026 coverage. It also ties directly into our broader look at ATP Tour betting tendencies. 

Read on for the 10 biggest Australian Open men’s betting upsets in 2025. 

2025 Australian Open Betting Interpretation

What the 2025 Australian Open by-round betting data shows:

• Favorites were most vulnerable in Round 2, where they posted a −6.05% yield across a massive sample.
• Blind underdogs are crushed in every Australian Open round except the quarterfinals, where pricing tightens and variance compresses.

Actionable takeaway:

The 2025 Australian Open was not a dog-friendly Slam overall. Profitable betting came from isolating specific matchup failures, especially in Round 2, not chasing underdogs blindly.

Gaël Monfils def. (4) Taylor Fritz — 3rd Round Australian Open Upset

Taylor Fritz was priced as a stable hard-court favorite, while Gaël Monfils’ age depressed his market value. As rallies extended, Monfils’ movement, variety, and physical resilience completely reversed the expected script.

Betting takeaway: Functional athleticism still beats projected decline in best-of-five tennis.

(Q) Learner Tien def. (5) Daniil Medvedev — 2nd Round Australian Open Upset

Daniil Medvedev was priced as one of the safest Grand Slam commodities on the board, especially against a qualifier. Learner Tien stepped inside the baseline, refused to rally passively, and matched Medvedev physically and mentally across nearly five hours, winning two pressure tiebreaks in the process.

Betting takeaway: Even elite defenders are vulnerable in the Australian Open heat when young players dictate early and sustain aggression.

Aleksandar Vukic def. (22) Sebastian Korda — 2nd Round Australian Open Upset

Sebastian Korda’s ceiling drove market confidence, but Aleksandar Vukic stayed composed, absorbed pressure, and flipped the match physically in the final two sets.

Betting takeaway: Korda continues to battle recurring injuries, and in best-of-five tennis, the fitter player often closes when durability becomes the deciding edge.

Corentin Moutet def. (25) Alexei Popyrin — 1st Round Australian Open Upset

Alexei Popyrin’s seeding and home-court narrative inflated expectations, but Corentin Moutet disrupted rhythm, extended rallies, and repeatedly forced Popyrin to win uncomfortable points.

Betting takeaway: Variety and patience can dismantle serve-heavy favorites, especially in early-round Grand Slam matches.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina def. (29) Félix Auger-Aliassime — 2nd Round Australian Open Upset

Félix Auger-Aliassime stormed out to a two-set lead, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina turned the match into a physical war. As FAA’s legs faded, the Spaniard’s endurance, rally tolerance, and court coverage flipped the contest decisively.

Betting takeaway: Two-set leads don’t protect large favorites in best-of-five when fitness gaps begin to surface.

Miomir Kecmanović def. (18) Hubert Hurkacz — 2nd Round Australian Open Upset

Hubert Hurkacz’s serve-first profile was priced as matchup-proof, but Miomir Kecmanović absorbed pace, neutralized the serve, and exposed Hurkacz’s vulnerability once rallies extended.

Betting takeaway: Serve-reliant favorites, especially those returning from injuries or extended absences, are fragile in best-of-five tennis.

Novak Djokovic def. (3) Carlos Alcaraz — Quarterfinal Australian Open Upset

Carlos Alcaraz entered as the market favorite despite Novak Djokovic’s Grand Slam pedigree. Djokovic dropped the opening set, then methodically rolled his younger rival in three controlled, routine sets to flip both the match and the market.

Betting takeaway: Djokovic may be in his twilight years, but he remains a matchup problem for Alcaraz — improving to 5–4 lifetime in their head-to-head.

Alex Michelsen def. (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas — First Round Australian Open Upset

Stefanos Tsitsipas’s seeding and former Australian Open finalist reputation masked current matchup vulnerabilities. Alex Michelsen stayed aggressive, served cleanly under pressure, and never allowed the favorite to establish baseline authority.

Betting takeaway: Confidence matters — and Tsitsipas’s confidence is clearly waning.

(Q) João Fonseca def. (9) Andrey Rublev —First Round Australian Open Upset

Andrey Rublev’s top-10 ranking and Grand Slam experience drove heavy market confidence, but João Fonseca’s fearless ball-striking and early court positioning flipped the matchup immediately. The qualifier never allowed Rublev to dictate rhythm.

Betting takeaway: Explosive qualifiers remain one of the most mispriced Slam profiles.

(Q) Hady Habib def. Bu Yunchaokete — First Round Australian Open Upset

Hady Habib entered the Australian Open as an unknown qualifier, but he controlled many of the key exchanges and won both tiebreaks with composure. Bu Yunchaokete blinked repeatedly under pressure, allowing the match to slip away despite many blown opportunities.

Betting takeaway: Composure in tiebreaks remains one of the most underpriced edges in tennis betting.