In the world of ATP Tour betting, consistency doesn’t always pay.
Sometimes, the underdogs, the upset specialists, the “giant-killers” are the ones who turn a small stake into a windfall.
In this breakdown, we spotlight the Top 10 Most Profitable ATP players of 2025 based solely on their match-by-match ATP Tour betting returns at ATP tournaments.
From Alexander Bublik’s outrageous serve-and-smash upsets to Valentin Vacherot’s quiet Masters 1000 snipes, these players turned long odds into serious units.
For bettors looking for ATP Tour betting value beyond the favorites, this is your cheat sheet.
This article is part of our ongoing Australian Open 2026 coverage
🌍🏆 Top 10 Most Profitable ATP Players: Match Highlights (ATP Tournaments Only)
🇰🇿 ALEXANDER BUBLIK — The Ultimate Giant-Killer
Upset Odds: 8.56, 7.77, 6.04
Victims: Jack Draper, Alex de Minaur, Jannik Sinner
Bublik is the No. 1 most profitable ATP player for a reason: He beats elite opponents at ludicrous prices.
The Pattern
- Huge server + aggressive unpredictability
- Market overreacts to inconsistency → prices him too long
- When he “locks in,” he beats anyone on any surface
📌 These three wins alone = +22.37 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-02 | French Open | Draper J. | +756 |
| 2025-05-29 | French Open | De Minaur A. | +677 |
| 2025-06-19 | Halle Open | Sinner J. | +504 |
🇪🇸 JAUME MUNAR — The Sweet-Spot Specialist
Upset Odds: 6.68, 5.03, 4.37
Victims: Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Bublik
Munar thrives in the sweet spot where slightly underpriced odds meet high-impact surfaces.
The Pattern
- Consistent baseline game with smart risk-taking
- Often underbet in Masters 1000 and ATP 500 events
- Turns small edges into huge profits
📌 These three wins alone = +16.08 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-06 | Dallas Open | Shelton B. | +568 |
| 2025-03-21 | Miami Open | Medvedev D. | +403 |
| 2025-07-01 | Wimbledon | Bublik A. | +337 |
🇲🇨 VALENTIN VACHEROT — Masters 1000 Sniper
Upset Odds: 5.77, 3.69, 3.55
Victims: Novak Djokovic, Holger Rune, Alexander Bublik
Vacherot quietly cashes big in high-stakes events where the market underestimates him.
The Pattern
- Precise shot-making under pressure
- Excels on hardcourt Masters events
- Consistently targets top-tier opponents for profit
📌 These three wins alone = +13.01 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Shanghai Masters | Djokovic N. | +477 |
| 2025-10-09 | Shanghai Masters | Rune H. | +269 |
| 2025-10-03 | Shanghai Masters | Bublik A. | +255 |
🇳🇱 TALLON GRIEKSPOOR — The Dutch Dynamo
Upset Odds: 14.04, 3.87, 3.70
Victims: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev
Griekspoor thrives when the spotlight is on others; his value comes from big odds on top-tier players.
The Pattern
- Heavy topspin + relentless baseline pressure
- Excellent at converting high-pressure situations
- Top seeds often underestimate his rhythm
📌 These three wins alone = +21.61 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Shanghai Masters | Sinner J. | +1304 |
| 2025-03-07 | BNP Paribas Open | Zverev A. | +287 |
| 2025-02-27 | Dubai Tennis Championships | Medvedev D. | +270 |
🇫🇷 ARTHUR RINDERKNECH — The Big Match Threat
Upset Odds: 7.20, 4.65, 4.39
Victims: Alexander Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Ben Shelton
Rinderknech thrives when the stakes are high, turning mid-sized odds into serious profits against top opponents.
The Pattern
- Powerful serve + consistent baseline game
- Excels in high-pressure sets
- Often overlooked by markets → long odds capitalize on sharp performances
📌 These three wins alone = +16.24 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-01 | Wimbledon | Zverev A. | +620 |
| 2025-08-27 | US Open | Davidovich Fokina A. | +365 |
| 2025-06-17 | Queen’s Club Championships | Shelton B. | +339 |
🇪🇸 ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA — The Flashy Baseline Star
Upset Odds: 4.81, 3.69, 3.57
Victims: Taylor Fritz, Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime
Davidovich Fokina combines flair and consistency to snag long-odds victories at key ATP events.
The Pattern
- Explosive groundstrokes + creative shot-making
- Targets mid-ranked players and high seeds alike
- Market often underestimates ability to close tight matches
📌 These three wins alone = +12.07 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Delray Beach Open | Fritz T. | +381 |
| 2025-07-26 | Citi Open | Fritz T. | +269 |
| 2025-01-15 | Australian Open | Auger-Aliassime F. | +257 |
🇵🇹 HENRIQUE ROCHA — The Clay Court Opportunist
Upset Odds: 11.78, 2.78
Victims: Jakub Mensik, Nikoloz Basilashvili
Rocha leverages clay and underestimation to snare outsized wins.
The Pattern
- Top-spin specialist + defensive resilience
- Targets opponents with weaker clay-court records
- High value in early ATP tournaments
📌 These two wins alone = +14.56 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-29 | French Open | Mensik J. | +1078 |
| 2025-05-27 | French Open | Basilashvili N. | +178 |
🇬🇧 CAMERON NORRIE — The Big Match Grinder
Upset Odds: 10.54, 4.33, 3.06
Victims: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jiri Lehecka
Norrie excels when he’s underestimated, grinding down top seeds with steady, profitable play.
The Pattern
- Consistent baseline and fitness edge
- Capitalizes on small errors from favorites
- Masters 1000 events = prime opportunity for units
📌 These three wins alone = +17.93 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | BNP Paribas Masters | Alcaraz C. | +954 |
| 2025-05-27 | French Open | Medvedev D. | +333 |
| 2025-04-26 | Mutua Madrid Open | Lehecka J. | +206 |
🇲🇽 RODRIGO PACHECO MENDEZ — The Long-Shot Specialist
Upset Odds: 11.45, 4.07
Victims: Casper Ruud, Aleksandar Vukic
Pacheco Mendez consistently delivers the rare, high-odds wins that make bettors’ eyes light up.
The Pattern
- Explosive serve + aggressive baseline play
- Targets higher-ranked players for maximum odds value
- Shines in ATP 250 events
📌 These two wins alone = +15.52 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-27 | Abierto Mexicano | Ruud C. | +1045 |
| 2025-02-26 | Abierto Mexicano | Vukic A. | +307 |
🇩🇪 ALEXANDER MULLER — The Consistent Underdog
Upset Odds: 6.92, 4.61, 4.23
Victims: Alexander Zverev, Joao Fonseca, Karen Khachanov
Muller quietly racks up units by outperforming expectations in mid-tier ATP events.
The Pattern
- Steady serve + opportunistic return game
- Exploits small cracks in opponent focus
- Often priced too long despite solid form
📌 These three wins alone = +15.76 units of profit.
| Date | Tournament | Opponent | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-21 | Hamburg Open | Zverev A. | +592 |
| 2025-02-19 | Rio Open | Fonseca J. | +361 |
| 2025-09-25 | China Open | Khachanov K. | +323 |
Top 10 ATP Tour Upsets for 2025
These were the top 10 biggest upsets in 2025.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Winner | Loser | W Sets | L Sets | Winner Avg Odds | Loser Avg Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Shanghai Masters | 3rd Round | Griekspoor T. | Sinner J. | 1 | 1 | +1404 | -98 |
| 2025-03-22 | Miami Open | 2nd Round | Goffin D. | Alcaraz C. | 2 | 1 | +1153 | -97 |
| 2025-05-29 | French Open | 2nd Round | Rocha H. | Mensik J. | 3 | 2 | +1078 | -95 |
| 2025-02-27 | Abierto Mexicano | 2nd Round | Pacheco Mendez R. | Ruud C. | – | – | +1045 | -96 |
| 2025-10-28 | BNP Paribas Masters | 2nd Round | Norrie C. | Alcaraz C. | 2 | 1 | +1054 | -95 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | 1st Round | Passaro F. | Dimitrov G. | 1 | 0 | +1021 | -95 |
| 2025-01-03 | Brisbane International | Quarterfinals | Opelka R. | Djokovic N. | 2 | 0 | +996 | -95 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | 1st Round | Bonzi B. | Medvedev D. | 3 | 1 | +856 | -107 |
| 2025-06-02 | French Open | 4th Round | Bublik A. | Draper J. | 3 | 1 | +856 | -108 |
| 2025-05-28 | French Open | 2nd Round | Gigante M. | Tsitsipas S. | 3 | 1 | +843 | -108 |
