The 2025 ATP underdog betting wins reveal the players who consistently turned long-shot odds into serious profits.
While some stars racked up impressive underdog victories, others struggled to deliver when expected to win, creating a stark contrast between consistency and volatility.
From Alexandre Muller’s 17 giant-killing performances to Alexander Bublik’s massive ROI, the season offered plenty of lessons for bettors looking to capitalize on upsets and avoid risky favorites.
2025 ATP Tour Underdogs Wins
2025 ATP Top 25 Underdog Performers
| Player | Country | Underdog Wins | Favorite Units | Overall Units | ROI (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | 🇰🇿 | 9 | 6.71 | 19.27 | 33.22 |
| Learner Tien | 🇹🇼 | 11 | 5.78 | 10.89 | 19.80 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 🇪🇸 | 11 | 4.17 | 12.40 | 17.71 |
| Jaume Munar | 🇪🇸 | 14 | 0.56 | 17.15 | 31.76 |
| Alexandre Muller | 🇫🇷 | 17 | -0.89 | 11.49 | 22.53 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 🇫🇷 | 16 | -0.23 | 12.92 | 23.93 |
| Marcos Giron | 🇺🇸 | 11 | -3.27 | -1.72 | -3.44 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | 🇳🇱 | 10 | -3.38 | 1.05 | 2.92 |
| Jenson Brooksby | 🇺🇸 | 10 | 5.62 | 7.80 | 21.67 |
| Zizou Bergs | 🇧🇪 | 10 | 1.16 | 2.55 | 4.81 |
| Karol Majchrzak | 🇵🇱 | 10 | -2.35 | 7.17 | 26.56 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 🇮🇹 | 9 | 4.48 | 0.99 | 1.46 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 🇮🇹 | 9 | 0.51 | -4.65 | -8.45 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | 🇫🇷 | 8 | -2.11 | 6.15 | 17.57 |
| Reilly Opelka | 🇺🇸 | 8 | 0.50 | 6.25 | 13.02 |
| David Goffin | 🇧🇪 | 8 | -3.20 | 2.72 | 8.24 |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | 🇪🇸 | 8 | -0.10 | -3.77 | -10.19 |
| Fabian Marozsan | 🇭🇺 | 10 | 0.62 | -2.84 | -5.80 |
| Daniel Altmaier | 🇩🇪 | 15 | -3.37 | 7.16 | 14.32 |
| Cam Norrie | 🇬🇧 | 12 | 1.78 | 11.56 | 19.93 |
| Ugo Carabelli | 🇦🇷 | 12 | 0.30 | 1.74 | 3.95 |
| Gabriel Diallo | 🇨🇦 | 11 | 1.08 | 3.52 | 6.90 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 🇮🇹 | 11 | -2.21 | 2.39 | 4.43 |
Betting Tiers: Who to Trust and Who to Beware
Phil doesn’t bet every player on this list, but these are the situations where he does like backing the guys below.
Tier 1 – Players Phil Mostly Trusts
Profitable almost anywhere; reliable both as favorites and underdogs.
- Alexander Bublik – I typically only bet on Bublik as an underdog, especially on clay, where he beat Jack Draper, Etcheverry, and Andrey Rublev.
- Learner Tien – Only as an underdog on hard courts, where he pulled off nine upsets, including a 4-2 mark against the Top 10.
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Only as an underdog on hard courts, where he won eight times on cement, including two wins over Taylor Fritz and one against Ben Shelton.
Tier 2 – Players Phil Only Trusts as Underdogs
True giant-killers; profitable when underestimated, risky as favorites.
- Jaume Munar – Especially on hard courts (22-16), earning +17 units with upset victories over Daniil Medvedev and Ben Shelton.
- Alexandre Muller – Bet on him as an underdog on clay, going 10-11 with wins over Alexander Zverev, Francisco Cerundolo, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Joao Fonseca.
- Arthur Rinderknech – Especially on grass, where he pulled off four upsets, including victories over Zverev, Reilly Opelka, and Ben Shelton.
Tier 3 – Players Phil Doesn’t Like to Bet On
Unreliable as favorites; can win as underdogs, but profits are inconsistent.
- Marcos Giron – I only bet on him as a grass-court underdog, where he is 28-21 lifetime with wins over Matteo Berrettini, Andy Murray, and Holger Rune.
- Lorenzo Sonego – Only as a hard-court underdog, with six underdog victories, including wins over Lorenzo Musetti, Sebi Korda, and Tien.
- Roberto Bautista Agut – I don’t bet on him anywhere, ever.
- Fabian Marozsan – Went 28-26 last season; has a winning Masters 1000 mark and could be ready for a bounce-back season.
Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast-Exhibition Season!
The Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast is back, and Craig Doyle and Phil Naessens are riding shotgun with you for another week of off-season hot takes and previewing the Battle of the Sexes challenge between Nick Kyrgios and Aryna Sabalenka.
