Betting upsets on the ATP Tour have become one of the most fascinating storylines of the 2025 season.
Carlos Alcaraz may have won two Grand Slam titles, but he also suffered two of the biggest betting upsets on the ATP Tour.
Alcaraz wasn’t alone. Here’s a rundown of the 10 biggest betting upsets on the ATP Tour of 2025.
This article is part of our ongoing Australian Open 2026 coverage.
This data point also ties directly into our broader look at ATP Tour betting tendencies, where long-term match length profiles reveal which players consistently drag matches into deciding sets.
10 Biggest Betting Upsets on the ATP Tour in 2025
🎾 10 Biggest Betting Upsets on the ATP Tour in 2025
| # | Date | Tournament | Round | Winner | Loser | W Rank | L Rank | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025-03-22 | Miami Open | 2nd Round | 🇧🇪 David Goffin | 🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz | 55 | 3 | +1673 |
| 2 | 2025-05-29 | French Open | 2nd Round | 🇵🇹 Henrique Rocha | 🇨🇿 Jakub Mensik | 200 | 19 | +1550 |
| 3 | 2025-10-28 | BNP Paribas Masters | 2nd Round | 🇬🇧 Cameron Norrie | 🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz | 31 | 1 | +1200 |
| 4 | 2025-01-03 | Brisbane International | Quarterfinals | 🇺🇸 Reilly Opelka | 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic | 293 | 7 | +1164 |
| 5 | 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | 1st Round | 🇫🇷 Benjamin Bonzi | 🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev | 64 | 9 | +1150 |
| 6 | 2025-06-02 | French Open | 4th Round | 🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik | 🇬🇧 Jack Draper | 62 | 5 | +1050 |
| 7 | 2025-05-28 | French Open | 2nd Round | 🇮🇹 Matias Gigante | 🇬🇷 Stefanos Tsitsipas | 167 | 20 | +950 |
| 8 | 2025-05-28 | French Open | 2nd Round | 🇵🇹 Nuno Borges | 🇳🇴 Casper Ruud | 41 | 8 | +900 |
| 9 | 2025-07-01 | Wimbledon | 1st Round | 🇫🇷 Arthur Rinderknech | 🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev | 72 | 3 | +820 |
| 10 | 2025-07-27 | Canadian Open | 1st Round | 🇨🇦 Nicolas Arseneault | 🇨🇦 Vasek Royer | 638 | 111 | +800 |
How the ATP Tour Upsets Went Down
1️⃣ Goffin Shocks Alcaraz in Miami
David Goffin, ranked 55th, pulled off the biggest betting upsets on the ATP Tour in 2025 by defeating world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz in the second round of the Miami Open. At +1673 odds, this was the most improbable victory of the season and a nice reward for the brave bettors who bet against Alcaraz.
2️⃣ Rocha Overcomes Mensik at Roland Garros
Henrique Rocha, ranked 200th, toppled 19th-ranked Jakub Mensik in the second round of the French Open. With +1550 odds, it’s a clay-court shocker few saw coming.
3️⃣ Norrie Stuns Alcaraz in Paris
Alcaraz, the world No. 1, suffered an early exit at the BNP Paribas Masters. Cameron Norrie, ranked 31st, won at +1200 odds, reminding everyone that even the top-ranked players are not invincible.
4️⃣ Opelka Knocks Out Djokovic in Brisbane
Few would have predicted Reilly Opelka, ranked 293rd, would defeat Novak Djokovic in the Brisbane International quarterfinals. With +1164 odds, this result was one of the most shocking early-season hard-court upsets.
5️⃣ Bonzi Beats Medvedev on Centre Court
At Wimbledon 2025, Benjamin Bonzi, ranked 64th, eliminated Daniil Medvedev, ranked 9th, in the first round. At +1150 odds, it was a dramatic reminder of the unpredictability of Grand Slam grass court tournaments.
6️⃣ Bublik Dispatches Draper at Roland Garros
Alexander Bublik, ranked 62nd, overcame Jack Draper, world No. 5, in the French Open 4th round. Bettors who backed Bublik at +1050 odds were richly rewarded.
7️⃣ Gigante Over Tsitsipas
In another French Open second-round shocker, 167th-ranked Matias Gigante defeated 20th-ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas. At +950 odds, it was a reminder that clay courts can produce massive surprises.
8️⃣ Borges Tops Ruud
Portuguese Nuno Borges, ranked 41st, pulled off a major upset over Casper Ruud at +900 odds. This result underscored the importance of knowing a player’s health before betting on a tennis match.
9️⃣ Rinderknech Stuns Zverev at Wimbledon
Arthur Rinderknech, 72nd in the world, eliminated Alexander Zverev, ranked 3rd, in a first-round thriller at Wimbledon. With +820 odds, it was one of the most talked-about grass-court upsets of 2025.
🔟 Arseneault’s Fairy-Tale Win in Canada
In the ultimate David vs. Goliath moment, Nicolas Arseneault, ranked 638th, defeated Vasek Royer, 111th, in the Canadian Open first round. Bettors who took a chance on +800 odds enjoyed one of the biggest paydays of the season.
Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast
Phil Naessens is a tennis betting analyst and former tennis coach with decades of experience in player development and match analysis. He is the founder of Crush Rush News and host of the Crush & Rush Tennis Podcast, focusing on price-first betting strategy, market efficiency, and transparency in sports wagering.
