Preseason tennis always produces its share of bold claims, but nothing highlights the gap between feel-good storytelling and actual performance analysis like this year’s prediction that Alex de Minaur will finish 2026 as the No. 3 player in the world.
It’s a perfect case study in how narratives get built and why Phil Naessens built Crush and Rush News.
Alex de Minaur, Top Three?
One of my favorite 2026 “predictions” so far is the one claiming Alex de Minaur will finish the season as the No. 3 player in the world.
“My boldest move is to place de Minaur at three. Covering Laver Cup this year and having had the pleasure of both watching de Minaur’s game up close and discussing finer points directly with him in press, I feel I have a fresh understanding of how and why he ‘works’ on a tennis court.
Ditto his strengths as a human being. Underrated doesn’t even begin to describe this player. Three is probably ambitious, but I’m trying to get a rise out of fans and wake them up to the importance of speed and court craft in the sport of tennis.”
I didn’t get her intended results, but she did, unintentionally, highlight exactly why Crush & Rush News exists.
Her prediction is built on:
- Access
- Proximity
- Personal impression
- A narrative goal (her words: “trying to get a rise out of fans”)
- Admiration for his personality and work ethic
That’s not projection. That’s editorial storytelling.
Totally fine — as long as no one mistakes it for performance forecasting.
What Her Reasoning Really Says
1️⃣ Laver Cup is an entirely misleading environment
Laver Cup is:
- Fast courts
- Shorter matches
- No ranking pressure
- Half-invested players
- Exhibition energy
Performances there always exaggerate grinders and speed merchants because:
- Points are quick
- Defense looks flashier
- The physical cost is tiny
- Matchups are curated
It’s a perfect environment to overvalue “court craft.”
2️⃣ Proximity bias is doing most of the work
Phrases like:
- “Watched him up close”
- “Discussed finer points directly with him”
- “Strengths as a human being”
…are classic access-journalism traps. You like the person, you want to see them succeed, so you unrealistically raise their ceiling.
3️⃣ She openly admits the ranking is performative
Her words:
“Three is probably ambitious, but I’m trying to get a rise out of fans.”
That isn’t forecasting. That’s content engineering, provocative, conversational, intentionally unrealistic.
Perfectly fair in a column. Utterly useless for serious tennis betting discussion.
4️⃣ Alex de Minaur: The Reality
Here’s the actual performance picture:
- 8–16 vs top-20
- 2–11 vs top-10 in 2025
- 16 straight losses to top-10 opponents in ranking events
- In his last 13 matches vs top-10:
- 9 were routine losses
- 4 went the distance, and he lost all 4 of those
This isn’t a top-3 profile. It’s barely a top-10 profile.
5️⃣ Crush and Rush News Conclusion
At Crush and Rush News, we don’t forecast based on access, proximity, or how charming a player is in the media room.
We base our projections on performance indicators, trend stability, and repeatable patterns that translate into ranking points, not narratives.
So here’s what we are dealing with.
De Minaur currently is:
- Outside the Top 30 in most serving metrics.
- Has one of the lightest offensive games in the Top 20
- A 2–11 record vs the Top 10 last season
- No Masters 1000 final
- No Grand Slam semifinal
- A game heavily dependent on court speed, physicality, and opponent error rate
The Aussie has reached just one Masters 1000 final, and he got beaten by Jannik Sinner 6-4, 6-1 (2023), and has never reached a Grand Slam semifinal in 34 Grand Slam appearances.
That’s not the profile of a Top-3 player. It’s the profile of a Top-10 gatekeeper. He can’t beat the best, and last season’s 23-20 mark against the Top 50 doesn’t exactly instill much confidence.
De Minaur doesn’t have a weapon, and I would be surprised if he finishes the 2026 season in the ATP Tour Top 10.
