Even the best ATP Tour players have days they’d like to forget, and nothing tells that story better than joining the ATP Tour Bagel Club after a 0‑6 drubbing.
In the last 52 weeks, some of the tour’s finest have found themselves on the receiving end of the dreaded bagel and breadstick.
From seasoned champions to rising stars, this list ranks the top 20 players who’ve “eaten the most” in harsh, lopsided set losses.
We’ve also highlighted the players’ nations, because sometimes it’s about pride as much as the scoreboard.
Whether you’re a fan, a bettor, or love their tennis stats with a side of drama, welcome to the ATP Tour Bagel Club.
The 2025 ATP Tour Bagel Club
When you look at who absorbed the worst single-set beatings on the ATP Tour last season, a few names consistently show up, and they matter when you start evaluating Australian Open bets in extreme heat.
🇪🇸 Pedro Martínez: The Leader of the ATP Tour Bagel Club
Pedro Martínez was steamrolled more than anyone in 2025. He ate three 0–6 sets and fifteen 1–6 sets for a total of 18 heavy set losses. Add one mid-match retirement, and you have serious durability concerns heading into the hottest Slam of the year.
🇮🇹 Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Overwhelmed by Pace and Heat
Camilo Ugo Carabelli wasn’t far behind. Ten 1–6 sets, one 0–6 set, and three early retirements show a player who repeatedly broke down physically. Melbourne heat magnifies that profile.
🇫🇷 Gaël Monfils: Still Magical, But the Body Is Slowing
ATP Tour Bagel Club member Gael Monfils remains electric, but his two retirements and four lopsided set losses show what happens when his legs or back flare up. Best to avoid him in long, daytime matches on the outer courts.
🇮🇹 Matteo Arnaldi & 🇮🇹 Luciano Darderi: Young, Exciting, but Fragile
Both Italians flashed potential all year, but struggled to finish matches. Luciano Darderi retired three times; Matteo Arnaldi twice. When they lose control of a match, they can quickly join the ATP Tour Bagel Club.
🇪🇸 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: High Variance, High Risk
A big athlete who loves chaos, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina also had two retirements and dropped 12 sets by 1–6 or 0–6. In Melbourne heat, volatility tends to punish players like him.
🇨🇿 Tomas Macháč: The Outlier at the Top
World No. 32 Tomas Macháč recorded five retirements, the most on tour last year. His shotmaking is elite, but his body repeatedly let him down. He’s a fade candidate in any best-of-five match, especially round one and round two.
Other ATP Tour Bagel Club Notables
Players like Daniel Altmaier, Arthur Rinderknech, Sebastian Baez, and Rinky Hijikata frequently lost lopsided sets or retired mid-match. None of them should be trusted in long physical battles under the Melbourne sun.
| Rank | Player | 0-6 | 1-6 | Total Sets Lost | Early Retirements |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸 Pedro Martinez | 3 | 15 | 18 | 1 |
| 2 | 🇮🇹 Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 | 10 | 11 | 3 |
| 3 | 🇫🇮 Emil Ruusuvuori | ? | ? | ? | 0 |
| 3 | 🇫🇷 Gael Monfils | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 4 | 🇭🇺 Alex Michelsen | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 5 | 🇵🇹 Pedro Sousa | ? | ? | ? | 0 |
| 6 | 🇮🇹 Holger Rune | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | 🇮🇹 Matteo Arnaldi | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | 🇫🇷 Arthur Rinderknech | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 9 | 🇪🇸 Alejandro Tabilo | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | 🇷🇸 Borna Coric | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | 🇯🇵 Rinky Hijikata | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 | 🇪🇸 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 | 11 | 12 | 2 |
| 13 | 🇵🇱 Hubert Hurkacz | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | 🇮🇹 Matteo Gigante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 🇩🇪 Daniel Altmaier | 1 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | 🇯🇵 Shintaro Mochizuki | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | 🇮🇹 Luciano Darderi | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | 🇫🇷 Sebastien Baez | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| 19 | 🇨🇿 Tomas Machac | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 20 | 🇪🇸 Carlos Taberner | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Legend:
High (4–5) — Many early retirements
Medium (2–3) — Moderate early retirements
Low (0–1) — Few early retirements
Check out our latest Australian Open Breakdown
Early Retirement Insights
Players with high early retirement counts often overlap with frequent lopsided set losses.
| Player | Nation | Early Retirements |
|---|---|---|
| Tomas Machac | 🇨🇿 | 5 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 🇧🇬 | 5 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 🇮🇹 | 3 |
| Luciano Darderi | 🇮🇹 | 3 |
| Pedro Martinez | 🇪🇸 | 1 |
| Daniel Altmaier | 🇩🇪 | 1 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 🇫🇷 | 1 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 🇪🇸 | 2 |
| Holger Rune | 🇮🇹 | 4 |
| Gaël Monfils | 🇫🇷 | 2 |
Legend:
High (4–5) — Many early retirements
Medium (2–3) — Moderate early retirements
Low (0–1) — Few early retirements
What This Means for the 2026 Australian Open
The Bagel Club and early retirement data offer key insights for handicapping the 2026 Australian Open.
Players who frequently lose sets 0‑6 or 1‑6, and those with a history of early retirements, are often vulnerable under extreme conditions, such as the Australian summer heat.
At last year’s Australian Open, there were five early retirements in the men’s draw, reinforcing the point that even top-tier athletes like Novak Djokovic can succumb to fatigue, injury, or mental strain during long matches.
Combining this information with the Bagel Club data gives bettors a clearer picture of which players might struggle in grueling conditions or in certain matchups.
Practical applications for betting:
- Bet Against Collapse-Prone Favorites: Players who frequently lose 0‑6 or 1‑6 sets, or who have a history of early retirements, are more likely to struggle under pressure. Even if they’re the favorite, consider betting against them in straight sets or on match outcome props.
- Look for Underdog Opportunities: When these same players are underdogs, betting the Under on total games or sets can pay off, since they may struggle to hold serve or push sets to tiebreaks.
- Factor in Heat and Fatigue: Australian Open conditions—high temperatures and long matches—exacerbate vulnerabilities. Players who are prone to early retirements or collapse in long matches are especially risky in hot sessions.
- Contextualize Head-to-Head Records: Past straight-set losses against certain opponents may be explained by these patterns. A player who has suffered frequent heavy defeats might struggle again against a similar style or a high-pressure matchup.
- Combine with Other Stats: Use alongside serve %, break point conversion, and other advanced metrics to create a holistic view of risk and opportunity.
Good luck with your bets!
