The Australian Open is right around the corner, and if you’re diving into early futures or building your January betting portfolio, you need more than vibes and highlight-reel memories.
You need numbers that matter — win rates, performance vs elite competition, and the type of consistency that translates to Melbourne’s brutal best-of-five conditions.
To kick off our 2026 Australian Open prep, we’ve built a sortable, color-coded performance table that evaluates the top men on tour based on three pillars across the previous two seasons:
- Overall win percentage
- Record vs Top 20 opponents
- Record vs Top 10 opponents
These categories tell us which players over the past two seasons have beaten who they’re supposed to beat, and who consistently step up on the sport’s biggest stages.
Our color key makes it easy:
- 🟩 High (70%) — Elite, real-deal contenders
- 🟨 Mid (50–69.9%) — Dangerous floaters who need the right draw
- 🟥 Low (<50%) — Talented, but not reliable enough in big-match situations
Below the table, we break down what these numbers mean for bettor confidence heading into Melbourne.
| Player | Total W-L | Win % | Vs Top 20 | Win % | Vs Top 10 | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANNIK SINNER | 131-12 | 91.6 | 52-10 | 83.9 | 37-9 | 80.4 |
| ALEXANDER ZVEREV | 123-43 | 74.1 | 30-27 | 52.6 | 12-15 | 44.4 |
| CARLOS ALCARAZ | 122-21 | 85.3 | 43-12 | 78.2 | 28-8 | 77.8 |
| TAYLOR FRITZ | 103-45 | 69.6 | 23-23 | 50.0 | 12-15 | 44.4 |
| ALEX DE MINAUR | 101-45 | 69.2 | 18-29 | 38.3 | 6-22 | 21.4 |
| CASPER RUUD | 89-40 | 69.0 | 15-14 | 51.7 | 9-6 | 60.0 |
| DANIIL MEDVEDEV | 87-42 | 67.4 | 16-19 | 45.7 | 9-12 | 42.9 |
| LORENZO MUSETTI | 85-50 | 63.0 | 19-20 | 48.7 | 9-16 | 36.0 |
| FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME | 82-49 | 62.6 | 18-19 | 48.6 | 11-14 | 44.0 |
| HOLGER RUNE | 81-44 | 64.8 | 9-13 | 40.9 | 6-9 | 40.0 |
| BEN SHELTON | 81-49 | 62.3 | 9-20 | 31.0 | 3-14 | 17.6 |
| ANDREY RUBLEV | 77-51 | 60.2 | 8-13 | 38.1 | 4-11 | 26.7 |
| NOVAK DJOKOVIC | 76-20 | 79.2 | 15-9 | 62.5 | 6-8 | 42.9 |
| TOMMY PAUL | 74-32 | 69.8 | 10-10 | 50.0 | 5-10 | 33.3 |
| JIRI LEHECKA | 71-41 | 63.4 | 15-19 | 44.1 | 7-11 | 38.9 |
| FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO | 71-54 | 56.8 | 14-20 | 41.2 | 7-9 | 43.8 |
| JACK DRAPER | 69-31 | 69.0 | 15-16 | 48.4 | 6-9 | 40.0 |
| KAREN KHACHANOV | 69-46 | 60.0 | 5-22 | 18.5 | 4-11 | 26.7 |
| STEFANOS TSITSIPAS | 66-40 | 62.3 | 7-15 | 31.8 | 3-7 | 30.0 |
| FLAVIO COBOLLI | 66-53 | 55.5 | 10-23 | 30.3 | 1-15 | 6.2 |
- High (≥ 70%)
- Mid (50–69.9%)
- Low (< 50%)
Sinner Isn’t Just the Favorite — He’s the Benchmark
Jannik Sinner’s numbers aren’t good; they’re historically good. A 91.6% overall win rate, combined with 83.9% against the Top 20 and over 80% vs the Top 10, is the clearest statistical profile of an Australian Open frontrunner we’ve seen since peak Djokovic.
His “high–high–high” sweep of the model is why he opened as the betting favorite, and rightfully so.
If he’s healthy, he sets the bar.
Alcaraz: The Only Other Player With Elite Color Ratings Across the Board
Carlos Alcaraz sits just behind Sinner, and his numbers are glowing:
- 85% win rate overall
- 78% vs Top 20
- Nearly 78% vs Top 10
He’s the only other player whose profile screams legitimate title threat in every category. The question bettors must answer: has he solved his early major inconsistencies Down Under?
If yes, he’s the 1B to Sinner’s 1A.
Zverev's Big-Match Issue Is Still the Big Question
Alexander Zverev shows up strong in overall volume wins, but the moment you filter for top competition, the colors fade:
- Mid-tier vs Top 20
- Low-tier vs Top 10
For outright betting, Zverev grades as a semifinal ceiling player unless the draw breaks perfectly.
Djokovic Remains Djokovic — Even in a Transition Phase
Even with age and mileage, his 79.2% overall win rate and 62.5% vs Top 20 show he remains a factor. What’s missing is the top-end dominance he once owned. For the first time in a decade, Novak Djokovic’s profile suggests “contender, not lock.”
Don't count him out, but just don’t assume he has a real shot at winning the Australian Open.
The Mid-Tier Chaos: Fritz, Paul, De Minaur, Medvedev, Ruud
This group is where futures bettors can find value.
- Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul are still the most dangerous and consistent American hardcourt options with enough mid-tier yellows to make a run if the draw is friendly.
- Alex De Minaur flashes elite moments, but his lack of a real weapon is why he loses to the Top 10, and why he likely won't win his home event.
- Daniil Medvedev remains tough as nails, but his declining top-competition numbers raise concerns for five-set battles.
These players can probably cash quarterfinal bets. Winning seven matches? Much tougher.
Young Guns & Landmines: Shelton, Musetti, Cobolli
A lot of red. A lot of volatility.
They can knock out a seed, but rarely stack elite wins consecutively. Ben Shelton has the most upside, and his big serve is why I would bet on him to win the 2026 Australian Open.
What This Means for the 2026 Australian Open Market
As early odds start to populate, your betting tiers should look like this:
Tier 1 — True Title Contenders
- Sinner
- Alcaraz
These are the only two players whose metrics scream “win the whole thing,", but the next six could give Sinner and Alcaraz a run Down Under.
Tier 2 — Semifinal Threats With Upside
- Djokovic
- Medvedev
- Fritz / Paul
- Ruud
- Zverev
They need the right week, the right draw, and a little luck, but they’re in better shape than these players below.
Tier 3 — Stick to Round Betting, Not Outrights
- Shelton
- Musetti
- De Minaur
- Everyone else
Except for Shelton, these players are only good for match-by-match edges, but not seven-match reliability.
Final Thoughts
The numbers don’t lie. That’s why we built this table: to cut through narratives and hype and give bettors a clear statistical roadmap heading into Melbourne.
Bookmark this page, because as futures odds evolve and injury news hits, this performance matrix will be the backbone of our Crush Rush News 2026 Australian Open betting previews, match breakdowns, and draw simulations.
This is the prep work the books don’t want you doing.
