2025 National Bank Open Masters 1000 Preview: Zverev Zips Through Toronto Field!
With a wave of top-tier withdrawals shaking up the 2025 National Bank Open, the draw in Toronto feels wide open and ripe for the taking.
Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and several other heavy hitters are out, leaving a field full of question marks, dark horses, and a handful of proven contenders.
What was once a routine Masters 1000 stop has suddenly become a high-stakes proving ground for the likes of defending champion Alexei Popyrin, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Ben Shelton, along with rising American Alex Michelsen, who could make a serious run on Toronto soil.
Join me as I break this one down quarter by quarter with a prediction when the National Bank Open begins on Sunday, July 27.
Past Champions in the Field
Alexei Popyrin (2024)
Pablo Carreno Busta (2022)
Daniil Medvedev (2021)
Alexander Zverev (2018)
Quarter 1: Zverev’s Zingers!
Projected Quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs. Holger Rune.
Top seed Alexander Zverev has a clear path through Quarter 1. He could face the winner of Joao Fonseca vs. Matteo Arnaldi in the third round, followed by a potential fourth-round clash with either Jaume Munar or Francisco Cerundolo.
Holger Rune, who owns one Masters 1000 title from four finals and 10 career retirements, has a bumpier road. He may need to get through second-round opponent Giovanni Mpetchi Perricard, Alexandre Muller in the third, and Daniil Medvedev or defending champ Alexei Popyrin just to reach Zverev.
Quarter 1 Winner: Alexander Zverev
Quarter 2: Michelsen Masters!
Projected Quarterfinal: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Casper Ruud.
Lorenzo Musetti is coming off an injury and could have a rough opener against Juncheng Shang. Alex Michelsen or Gael Monfils likely in the third round, and then Tomas Machac or red-hot local favorite Denis Shapovalov in the fourth.
Casper Ruud, meanwhile, draws a tricky first match—likely against Roman Safiullin. From there, he could run into Nuno Borges in the third and either Karen Khachanov or Ugo Humbert in the fourth.
Quarter 2 Winner: Alex Michelsen
Quarter 3: Big Bennie’s Ballin!
Projected Quarterfinal: Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton.
Frances Tiafoe likely opens against Daniel Altmaier, but could run into his stylistic twin, Alex de Minaur, in the fourth round.
Ben Shelton, if he plays, has a sweet path: maybe Brandon Nakashima in the third and Flavio Cobolli in the fourth. This quarter is his for the taking—if he shows up physically and mentally.
Quarter 3 Winner: Ben Shelton (if he plays at all)
Quarter 4: Putting on the Fritz!
Projected Quarterfinal: Andrey Rublev vs. Taylor.
Andrey Rublev’s path could include Lorenzo Sonego in the third and either Jakob Mensik or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the fourth.
Taylor Fritz, meanwhile, could meet local favorite Gabriel Diallo in the third, and potentially Arthur Fils or Jiri Lehecka in the fourth. A Fils-Fritz fourth-rounder could be fun—if Fils is fit.
Quarter 4 Winner: Taylor Fritz
Crush Rush National Bank Open Prediction
The wave of withdrawals opens the door for someone—and that someone is Alexander Zverev.
Zverev hasn’t done much winning since getting rolled by Jannik Sinner in the Aussie Open final, but he’s still the best and most accomplished hard-court player in the field.
He may be playing like crap lately, but he’s won more Masters 1000 events than anyone left (seven), including the 2017 National Bank Open, where he beat Roger Federer in the final.
I’m not sold on anyone in Ruud’s quarter, other than maybe Shapovalov if he catches fire. That gives Zverev a winnable path to the final.
Who does he meet there? It’s likely either Fritz or Shelton. Shelton has the easier road to the semis, but if he wins Washington, I doubt he does damage in Toronto.
That leaves Fritz. If Fils is healthy, he’ll test the American in the fourth. Rublev or Mensik could also give him trouble in the quarters.
Still, I like Zverev to turn things around in Toronto—snapping a five-match losing skid to Fritz in the process.
His National Bank Open record is solid (12–5), and while recent form has been mostly awful, he’s got the game and experience to blow through this field.
And I’m betting he does.
Prediction: Alexander Zverev
